Primary season has officially begun. Let me begin with the caveat: BARRING ANY CATACLYSMIC/BLACK SWAN EVENT, the 2024 Election will be the nastiest, bloodiest, most disgraceful, embarrassing and most controversial one yet.
It’s always “the most important election in our lifetime”. That’s like saying, “Today is the first day of the rest of your life,” or “If you get to that fork in the road, take it!”.
I still believe a Black Swan or worse, and “Unknown Unknown” event will take place between now and the election. For those of you who aren’t familiar with the term Black Swan, the Wikipedia description isn’t bad: “an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist, until they were discovered in Australia in 1697, and it then became reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.
Given the chaos that we are now experiencing, I also wouldn’t rule out the “Unknown Unknown”. In 2002 Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld explained, “There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
So, I think either a Black Swan or an Unknown Unknown event (I distinguish between the two only by degree of surprise and impact) will take place before the election.
But barring one of these:
- Trump will win the GOP nomination by March.
- Biden will win the Dem nomination by March.
- In August or latest September 2024 Biden will announce he will not stand for re-election thereby, per the Dem rules, the DNC will appoint a candidate, either Newsome, Michelle or someone who is being groomed right now and will come out of the woodwork.
- The nastiness and skullduggery of the DNC as they continue to try to take down Trump will reach unprecedented heights and civil war will ensue in checkout lines and across breakfast and dinner tables.
- If the GOP can get their forces aligned and their messaging right, and if they will do WHATEVER IT TAKES TO ENSURE THAT ONLY LEGITIMATE VOTES ARE COUNTED, i.e. DEMAND observation access to the key polling sites around the country where we got screwed in 2020…
- Trump will win the election decisively. The GOP will win the Senate and barely retain the House.
- The Left will go nuts. There will be civil unrest/demonstrations/riots/destruction that will make the Occupy Wall Street, Hands Up Don’t Shoot, George Floyd, CHAZ, CHOP and January 6th riots look like playground squabbles.
- Martial law will be declared.
- There will be numerous attempts on Trump’s life. All will be foiled. He will be sworn in January 2025 and will immediately begin to clean up the Swamp, with mixed results.
- The REAL insurrection of the Left will continue and the four most tumultuous years in U.S. history will begin (you don’t think the Left is going to stand down do you???!!!)
So much can and will happen between now and January 2025 that I know I’m going to have to modify this prediction, but as I see it right now, that’s what’s going to happen.
We’ll see. Keep your seatbelts fastened.