Tag: COVID-19

Invoking “Science”

Uncategorized

How often recently have you heard a reference to “the Science”? You hear it more from the Left than the Right because the Left thinks that by invoking “Science” all their positions are automatically affirmed, while the Right continues to apply common sense, critical thinking and skepticism to even the most hallowed scientific pronouncements.

Take the wildfires in California. Despite the fact (and I mean FACT) that the fires were set by arsonists or by careless attendees of a “gender reveal” party (.sic!), the leftist loons claim they’re the result of “Climate Change”. Does anyone with half a brain still listen to such nonsensical drivel? The fires were started by humans and spread uncontrolled because years of environmental “protection” banned the thinning of underbrush and prevented the cutting of fire breaks!

But, says the Left, “Science will solve all our problems”. Just “follow the science” and all will be well, because, as one thinking, rightfully skeptical author put it…. “Because, SCIENCE! YAAAAAY.” As the author, Sharon Hill aptly points out, “People who advocate fanatical reliance on science—where all competing methods of gaining knowledge are illegitimate—are practicing scientism.”

The subject of Scientism can and has produced thousands of pages and years of argument. The key point, in my opinion, is that there is a difference between Scientific proof and the application of the Scientific Method. Just because the Scientific Method can produce repeatable results in a laboratory does NOT mean a universal truth has been discovered or established. Or, that policy should be made based on the results!

When politicians invoke Science as their explanation for everything, they make fools of themselves. When they invoke Science as the basis for policy-making, they simply expose their biases and proclivities. Science has become a bludgeon on common sense and rational thinking.

The Wuhan Virus pandemic is a clear case-in-point. After all these months what should the reasonably informed, thinking adult conclude? Here’s my take:

1.            It’s a deadly virus but not a whole lot more deadly than a nasty flu. While it kills people more selectively and more rapidly than some other viruses, and while it may be spread somewhat more easily than the flu, colds and bacterial infections, the numbers, especially when discounted for all the “woke” interference, medical reimbursement gameplaying, false positive testing, (false negative testing as well for that matter), political opportunistic/anti Trump hysteria, foot-dragging, dumb decisions, inaccurate conclusions, media hype and soccer-mom hand wringing…despite all that… the numbers show that the number of people who have contracted, been infected, been hospitalized and who have died in this pandemic have been about as with a severe flu season.

2.            The reaction to the pandemic has been disproportionate to its threat. It’s pretty clear to me that the media hyperventilating and the fickle, hypocritical flip-flopping and rhetoric of the Left is based not on Science but politics. As I’ve noted numerous times, I’m no big fan of Trump, but the Left’s use of “Science” and the weaponization of the crisis to try to harm him, at the expense of the country’s economy not to mention the deaths caused because of fear of obtaining care for things totally unrelated to the virus, is disgusting and morally repugnant and should be to any objective observer.

3.            The response SHOULD HAVE been similar to that of a bad flu season, i.e. “if you’re sick, stay home from work”. If you’re really sick, go see your doctor or get to a clinic. If your symptoms are so sudden and acute (e.g. like a heart attack or inability to breathe!) that you’re worried you might not live, call 9-11 and seek emergency care! The impact of politicians desperately trying to show they’re doing something through news conference infomercials turned out to be reckless in some cases. For example, Cuomo’s order to send infected seniors back to their nursing homes, long term care and hospice facilities for fear of insufficient hospital beds had a devastating negative impact on deaths!

4.            Face masks (a.k.a. “face diapers”) do more to make people feel safe than actually protect either the wearer or the people around them. Common sense suggests that giving people the false sense of security that a mask provides may actually do more harm than good as people crowd closer to one another and aerosolized virus may then actually reach each other. Social Distancing, a term I hate because it has the same “wokeness” sound as Social Justice isn’t about being social or not social. It’s about being physically separate…kind of like when someone with a cold is coughing or sneezing near you!

5.            If, God forbid, Joe Biden wins the election in November, miraculously the pandemic will disappear. That’s because the Science will then reflect that he/it saved us all. The Leftist, sycophantic media will herald the virus’s demise as a response to getting rid of the “science-deniers” presently in the White House. Ugh…my breakfast creeps up at the thought.

6.            We need to stop listening to the so-called experts and use our heads. Some things OF COURSE make sense…they’re the same things our mothers taught us when we were kids…”wash your hands”, “cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze or cough”, “if you’re REALLY not feeling well, stay home, but that doesn’t mean you get to watch tv all day”, “if you’re running a persistent fever, we’re going to the doctor”… etc.

                As Sharon Hill concludes in her article: “Science is an awesome thing. It has well-deserved respect in our society because it’s damned reliable compared to other ways of finding out. Because of those qualities, it’s easy to overreach and attribute problem-solving capabilities to the scientific method alone.”

                Amen.

The COVID Scam

Government, Health Care, Politics, Science

This week the CDC finally admitted that of the ~180,000 “murdered by Donald Trump” (to quote the Left), 6% (or about 11,000 if my arithmetic is right) died from the virus. Everyone else had, on average, 2.6 additional conditions which caused their death. I’m not making this up. See this link for the details, but here’s a screen grab of the actual statement, buried down in the reams of data and analysis prepared by the back-room gnomes who routinely take invalid, faulty or made-up data and turn it into pretty graphs and multi-colored reports that makes it all so official and appear authoritative.

Here’s the significance of the CDC admission. Of the 180,000 who have died, 11,000 died FROM the virus. The rest died WITH the virus. That’s a HUGE distinction!

Even these 6% and 2.6 numbers are questionable, but the admission that the virus, while it may have hastened their demise, hasn’t killed all those people also corroborates what people resistant to televised or printed nonsense and the ability to think critically, or even those with just common sense, have concluded and been saying for months now!

In a previous post I pointed out that today EVERYTHING is political, and polarized between Left and Right. The Left wants the virus to be seen to be as bad as possible so they can both blame the current administration and set things up so government can ultimately “save” everyone, once they’re fully in control. The Right, while of course trying to shape the narrative in their favor, nevertheless seek to put things into perspective…into a positive, hopeful light, because they actually care about us and the country.

There are some principles that transcend politics, however. Included among them is, “Follow the money.”

Here’s the simple truth. The healthcare system is largely based on a system that has a physician or medical institution provide care and be reimbursed either by the government (Medicare, Medicaid, etc.), by health insurance companies or by individual patients, or some combination of the above (each a “Payer”). Medical provider revenues (and profits) are maximized by playing what I’ve long called the “coding game”. When a medical provider submits its “invoice” to the Payer it assigns both diagnosis as well as procedure “codes” to their bill. These codes dictate, in most cases, how much reimbursement the provider receives.

Is it any wonder that the reimbursement for treatment of an infectious disease during a pandemic would be higher than for an upper-respiratory infection or even the flu? It should be obvious that it is in the healthcare provider’s best economic interest to code treatment or treatments such that they maximize reimbursement. The dirty little secret is that providers, when given an option to code treatment for a patient dying of emphysema or COVID treatment will opt for the latter, or include both. Why? Because even though it was the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease that killed the patient, reimbursement for treatment of COVID is higher.

And it should also be obvious that hospitals, seeking to net as much helicoptered money as the Federal government has doled out as they can, will benefit from jacking up their COVID numbers as well. It’s no wonder therefore, that we’re told that ~180,000 have been killed by the virus!

Follow the money.

Turn off the news. Stop listening to the “experts”. Use common sense. Don’t cough in other peoples’ faces and don’t let them cough in yours. Don’t let the Left destroy our country. Vote them out this November.

I’m At a Loss for Words

America, Economy, Education, Family, Morality, Politics, Religion, Society & Culture, Values

Dear Readers and Patrons of Grumps Report,

I truly am at a loss for words. The emotions coursing through me at this moment are so powerful that I expect anything I write might not reflect what I think and feel even a couple of weeks from now. I’ve run out of adjectives and adverbs to describe the emotions: sadness, fear, disgust, hopefulness, resolve, patience and impatience, anger, compassion, hate and love, just to name a few.

Physically, I’m fine. I had a routine medical procedure last week that required me to visit my doctor. I thus had a COVID test and am negative. I don’t know whether I’ve got antibodies. I’ve stopped watching and reading the news on this topic because my economist/banker/businessman’s critical thinking training has me so put off by the so-called experts, even many whom I’ve trusted and relied on in the past, that I’ve shut them all out.

Spiritually and emotionally I’m sickened by what I see happening to our country. Having grown up in the 60’s witnessing all the rebellion and profligacy of that decade, I never saw anything like the soul-crushing necrosis I’m seeing today. I’m of course referring to the rioting, looting and what’s almost worse, the cowardice, demagoguery and genuflection on the part of Leftist politicians to what truly is domestic terrorism. In the 60’s it was easy to write off the chaos and attribute it to fringe lunacy. The great majority of Americans, while silent, appreciated what we had and were mostly bystanders to what was generally accepted to be foolishness or youthful exuberance. The vast majority of us still cherished and appreciated all that was good about America.

Today we’re seeing the fruits of the dark underbelly of the 60’s, amplified and expanded thanks to the internet and decades of indoctrination by the same losers who lacked self-control and self-discipline then. They now populate academia, law, and above all, government. Even the military and law enforcement haven’t been spared. There are neurotic, unproductive or barely productive adult children in virtually all our institutions.

I’ve already said too much. I will now go back to my bucket-list pursuit of reading all the Great Books. In them I find refuge, wisdom and truth that transcends all the nonsense bombarding me from all directions every minute of every day (were I to allow it).

Keep your seat belts fastened and your seat backs and tray tables in their full upright position. It’s going to be a bumpy ride for some time to come.

But this too shall pass.

Below Average Government Policy

America, Government, Health Care, Reason, Society & Culture

Government policy is based on averages. But there is no such thing as average…it’s an arithmetic concept, not a practical one. Average is intended to describe “tendency”, not reality. When a small group of outliers skews an average in one direction the picture painted by the data can be highly misleading. Let’s say there’s a small town where the average household income is $50,000 per year. If Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and Warren Buffett were to move into the town and average household income recalculated, the average wouldn’t be very representative would it?

Government policy is also based on categorizations. – putting groups into neat boxes. But this also distorts reality. For example, the government’s definition of a ‘small business”, causes a 5 employee hair salon to be lumped together with a 500 employee manufacturing firm and be subjected to the same lockdown order. Policies that are intended to make people safe or ensure economic survival in a factory aren’t going to adequately or correctly help the hair salon, yet that’s the way government regulations are applied and assistance is apportioned. Makes for poor policy with obvious results like protests and defiance!

Someone famously pointed out that two quarters of declining GDP may technically be a recession, but for the family breadwinner out of work it’s a depression! It doesn’t matter to the mid 50’s manager whose job was eliminated in a “right-sizing” at the company he or she works for that unemployment is at 3.5%!

Permit me to rephrase an old saying:

“Government can help some of the people some of the time. It can help a tiny few people all of the time. But it can’t help the “average” person most of the time.”

In short, government and politicians’ reliance on data, statistics, numbers and all their associated manipulations is a very messy way to devise policy.

This is why the less government the better. The less government regulation the better And conversely, the more self-reliance, the better. The more self-regulation, the better.

Let’s consider for a moment what would happen in the absence of government mandated Wuhan Virus lockdowns. Reasonable, responsible and self-reliant individuals would protect themselves, sneeze and cough into their handkerchiefs or tissues, protect their elderly relatives by staying away from them, and no doubt wear masks and wash their hands frequently knowing there was an airborne, highly contagious, nasty bug around. People getting sick would call in sick, (“I’ve got the flu and don’t want to infect everyone around me!”) and as soon as they got better, would go back to work.

If you asked an epidemiologist whether there IS such a thing as a common cold, they’d respond by citing a laundry list of rhinoviruses and bacteria that cause “cold-like symptoms.” I urge you to read the description of the Common Cold on the Mayo Clinic website, here. And there’s no cure for it!

Now we’re finding out there are a lot of people who have had the Wuhan Virus, were either asymptomatic or had only mild, temporary symptoms…just like the common cold.

This is not to suggest that the Wuhan Virus is no worse than the common cold, nor diminish the severity of this bug for those with compromised immune systems, underlying risk factors, other ailments like chronic respiratory disease, etc. Of course people with these conditions are more vulnerable, and of course we need to take extra precautions with them. And of course they need to take extra precautions themselves!

Had the government simply warned us of the severity of the threat as data was received instead of fueling the “if it bleeds it leads” media crowd, I can’d help but suspect we’d all have been better off.

And, on a personal level, I happen to fit into the category of the more vulnerable. Would I have taken extra precautions as I am now without government megalomania? Yes. Would I have run to get tested when not having any symptoms? No. Is there a chance I’d have gotten sick. Yup.

But there’s a chance I might contract a severe case of the flu, bronchitis and then septicemia that I’d have to fight too. Or have a stroke. Or get hit by a car walking across the street.  Or contract Ebola. Or be shot by a crazed sniper. Or be hit by a meteor. Or be struck by lightening (er…well, I HAVE been struck by lightening but that’s another story…) That there’s a chance to get sick or die or be killed in any of a hundred ways doesn’t automatically mean the likelihood is greater.

If instead of displaying a graph showing the rising deaths from the Virus, we saw one that simultaneously displayed other deaths, Wuhan Virus, as horrible as it is, wouldn’t appear so horrible! Here are CDC’s numbers for 2017. I’ve added Wuhan VIrus to show where it stacks up. Oh, and by the way, let’s not forget that of the deaths attributed to the Virus, many were caused by underlying heart, metastatic, or chronic respiratory ailments exacerbated, no doubt, by the Virus.

Number of deaths for leading causes of death in 2017:

  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Wuhan Virus: 80,000+
  • Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

    Source: CDC

As I’ve also noted often, EVERYTHING is political. Thus, it’s in the interests of Leftist politicians to report as many virus-related deaths as possible so as to support their case that the Trump administration is incompetent. That’s why Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York suddenly, one day a couple of weeks ago, increased the total of virus-related deaths by several thousand. He simply declared that any death that could remotely be associated either directly with the Wuhan Virus, or even indirectly, be counted as a virus-related death. Why? For the obvious reason stated above.

So, talk about shooting ourselves in the foot! We’re crippling our economy, causing immense emotional distress, and in just about every way doing exactly what our political, economic and military adversaries want us to do!

Hooray, therefore, for the protestors storming state capitols demanding the lifting of lockdown restrictions. Hooray for Shelley Luther, who stood up to a condescending, megalomaniacal judge. Hooray for the increasing number of law enforcement officers defying orders to arrest otherwise law abiding people defying lockdown orders. Hooray for the front line health care and other workers who  are choosing to help their fellow human beings. Hooray for the military and law enforcement of our country who are at risk every minute of every day while seeking to keep us safe. And finally, hooray for the AVERAGE (.sic) Americans who have had enough of this constant drone of gloom and doom and, despite risk, want to responsibly, thoughtfully and carefully return to living!

Re-Entry

America, Health Care, Reason, Society & Culture, Technology

It took just a minute to turn the switch off. But in the Northeast Blackout of August 2003, it wasn’t a matter of flipping the switch back on…the electrical grid had to be brought back on gradually lest some nasty power spikes set the whole system on fire! The COVID-19 mess is similar.

The parallels end with how relatively straightforward restoring power was as compared with restarting an entire economy. The complications: pragmatic, sociological, psychological, political, even spiritual, are mind-boggling. It amounts perhaps to the most intricate optimization problem society has ever faced. Compounding the problem is a lack of good will…the Swamp is the battleground.

One could argue that were the government at all levels to just step out of the way, the ship would right itself. Commerce, ingenuity, inherent good judgment and common sense could very well generate answers to the myriad problems.

On the other hand, so reliant, even dependent have our citizens become on the government to tell us what to do, leaving the re-entry to the good will of society and the workings of the marketplace, especially now that the government like the Blob has inextricably inserted itself into the equation, could result in an s-show of monumental proportions!

What to do?

Think for ourselves. Play strategic “what if” games. Start with the worst possible set of circumstances – there’s a renewed outbreak, the hospitals are overwhelmed, the therapeutic drugs don’t work and there is civil unrest, i.e. roving gangs of looters and killers. What, if anything, could you do about such a scenario?

Then, think of the more realistic dire but potential circumstances: you lose your job, your savings will last only so long, you’re healthy but it doesn’t look like there’s going to be any kind of meaningful recovery for you and your family in the near future and you know anything the government gives you is peanuts compared to what you were making before and your obligations. What do you do then?

Or let’s imagine the other extreme. The crisis was overblown and with a face mask on you return to work by, say, mid May. The kids go back to school with an extension of the school year into late June or July. How will you handle THAT?

To one degree or another any or all of the above scenarios are possible right now! Hard to believe since Netflix and the Internet are still operating, and even though the news shows look like the beginning of the Brady Bunch, with each co-host in his or her own square and your closet is stuffed with toilet paper and paper towels, life while different and crazy, goes on for most of us.

In short, assume the government is not the solution but the problem. How do we inoculate ourselves from a cure that is, indeed potentially worse than the disease?

Unfortunately, the time for preparation is gone. We’re in it now and have to make do with what we have and the circumstances we face. Certainly I cannot tell you what to do. Neither can some bureaucrat. Nor can some talking head on TV. Assume there will be no black and white decisions. All future forks in the road will be shrouded in fog, and ambiguity will reign over every decision we face.

Each and every one of us must think for ourselves, critically, pragmatically and do what is right to the best of our abilities. And each of us will have to be sole arbiters of “what is right”.  

Take heart! As bad as things are, they will get better, and better, and better. We can do this! Think of what the Apollo 13 astronauts faced. Think of what the battered bastards of Bastogne faced at the Bulge in December 1944. Remember Winston Churchill’s words, “When you’re going through Hell, keep going!” And think of what we went through on 9-11.

We can beat this thing. Those of us who have survived will be stronger. Those who have perished will be taken care of in a Better Place. Those who have lost loved ones will be comforted, in time. Those of us who have been knocked down will get up and fight again, for our families, for our friends, for our neighbors, for our communities, for our country. We will rebuild. We will rejuvenate, and we will once again re-assert our position as the greatest nation the world has ever known.

May God bless us in this novel (.sic) endeavor.

Grumps’ First Law of Experts as Applied to COVID-19

America, Economy, Family, Health Care, Politics, Reason, Science, Society & Culture, Uncategorized

“On any subject one can find at least twelve world-renowned experts citing documented, empirical, irrefutable evidence to support arguments that are diametrically opposed to one another.” – Grumps

Who you gonna believe? Dr. Anthony Fauci? Dr. Deborah Birx? Dr. Oz? President Trump? Secretary Steve Mnuchin? Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy? Senator Chuck Schumer? Senator Mitch McConnell? Larry Kudlow? Rachel Maddow? Laura Ingraham? Nancy Pelosi? Andrew Cuomo? Chris Cuomo?

Simply put, there are no end of experts, pundits, commentators, ‘contributors’.

Have you ever wondered why these people after being interviewed by some television host most often say “Thank you,” at the end of their segment, right after being thanked by the host? If it were I, my last words would be “you’re welcome”, or “happy to contribute”, or “my pleasure”, or even a simple nod. No, most say “thank you” or “thank you for having me”.

The reason is simple. The media is theater and these people being interviewed are being paid to entertain (.sic…they claim to inform but they’re mostly offering opinion, parroting someone else’s commentary, or simply making up stuff on the fly) so I’ll say entertain rather than inform despite even the best of intentions. If they’re not being paid, they’re hoping to someday be paid. If they’re neither being paid or hoping to be paid they’re desperate for attention and recognition in order to advance their careers, at best, or just their egos, at worst. They got their 15-180 seconds of fame. That’s why they say “thank you”.

I say despite their best intentions because many of the talking heads really do try to present relevant, useful, information and some even say what they really think. And some tell the truth, some omit the truth, some flavor or color the truth, some think they’re saying what’s true, and some disclose that they’re offering their opinions, which many take as truth.

On the other hand, there are many who intentionally deceive, ‘spin’, twist and color truths as well as outright lies to further their agenda. The more outrageous the deception, the better to “make it bleed”, thus “lead”.

And of course, depending upon where one sits on the ideological continuum, lies are truth and vice versa, spin is omnipresent…it’s a question of degree.

So whom to believe?

Ourselves. We went to school and supposedly learned how to think there. Instead of lapping up what the talking heads tell us, we need to think for ourselves. And the thinking needs to be critical. If what we’re hearing is contradictory, obscure, wrapped in gobbledygook or simply sounds like nonsense, it probably is. Doesn’t matter who’s spouting it and it doesn’t matter how much of it is fact, applicable to our own circumstances, or how much is conjecture, fiction, outright falsehood, etc.

We need to believe in our own God-given good judgement and make decisions that are right for us, not just run along with the sheep.

The only expert needed is us.

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