Month: June 2019

What We Do as a Family Matters

Family, Society & Culture

Been to a restaurant lately, where a family sits, a three year old with an iPad in front of her watching some children’s program, the 12 year old, with a tortured look, focused on an iPhone screen furiously tapping away, mom and dad’s phones face-up on the table creating an effect something like holding flashlights underneath our chins?

Regrettably, this scene is ubiquitous. And we wonder why the family is breaking down.

Of all the infections eating away at our society and culture today, the fundamental changes to families is the most virile. Of course Leave it to Beaver, the Donna Read Show, Ozzie and Harriet and all the other television fare that we grew up on couldn’t exist today. It truly was a different time. But in virtually all those shows, it was a given that families were, well, families!

Contrast those shows with what we see on television today. Does anyone honestly believe that what’s happening to traditional families is good for society?

The Left thinks that scene played out in the restaurant represents “progress.”

“Mom can monitor the babysitter, Dad is instantly reachable if something happens that needs his immediate attention either at work or at the club, Sally is occupied, quiet and not running around the restaurant disturbing others,” they will argue. No conversation of any substance. No recounting of what’s going on in each other’s lives. No understanding whatsoever of what’s eating at Johnny, or what Sally’s being fed on that children’s program. Mom and Dad just want to get through dinner so they can get back home to Dancing with the Stars and football.

Is it just me or does anyone else see how sick this is? Here’s a family, ostensibly sharing time together, except they’re not!

What happened to a parent’s responsibility to impart their values to their children? What ARE their values, and what IS being passed down? We know the answers, but should it be this way?

Cut scene. A family is gathered around a dinner table on a Sunday evening. No phones or tablets present, some peaceful music plays in the background. The cacophony and mayhem that prevailed two minutes earlier as each family member fulfilled their pre-dinner chores has given way to a more subdued tone as each takes his or her place at the table.

In some households, grace is said. In others, there’s a pause to raise a glass and give thanks that everyone could be together. In still others there’s simply quiet as napkins are taken off the table and placed on laps, everyone waiting for a signal from mom and dad to begin digging in.

As the meal progresses everyone is asked to report on what has transpired in their lives since they were last gathered like this. Even the monosyllabic teenagers are goaded into uttering a few grunts about what’s going on with their friends and at school. You get the picture.

Which scene is better for society? If you think the former, you’re probably a social justice warrior hell bent on “fundamentally transforming America.” If you think the latter, you’re probably nostalgic for a kinder and gentler time, one where the family was the most important unit of a civilized society, where families had pride in their name, and in their school, and in their community, and in their state, and in their country.

Of course these kinds of families still exist. The problem is that they’re decreasingly prevalent. The norm keeps moving towards the dysfunctional, to the “progressive”, down the slippery slope to necrosis.

How about we spend time with our families around picnic tables, playing soccer or stick ball in the park, fishing together at the local pond. How about moms and dads teaching their children manners, and helping them with their school projects, and paying attention to what they’re being taught and correcting misinformation. And teaching them the difference between right and wrong. And establishing and enforcing rules of behavior, and conduct, and respect.

And how about just having fun together. It’s ok to have a movie night with popcorn and soda, watching Frozen for the umpteenth time, but let’s also find examples of traditional goodness, and greatness to expose ourselves to.

We are what we do. Bury our faces in technology, abrogate our responsibility for raising our families to others and that’s who we are. Gather and recount acts of bravery, or sacrifice, or service, or touching others’ lives in a positive way, supporting one another at little league games, or at school plays, or attending a July 4th celebration together, and that’s who we are.

How we spend time together as families matters.

The Mall Rat Syndrome

Family, Society & Culture

We’ve all seen them, a group of fluorescent-haired, usually disheveled, radio-antenna-adorned teenagers standing around the entrance to a shopping mall, sometimes huddled and quietly mumbling to each other, sometimes overtly eyeing and loudly denigrating the more normal looking patrons going in and out of the wide doors.

But that was then. This is now.

There’s a more contemporary version of this gathering of “mall-rats”, these to-be-pitied, “other-directed” underachievers desperate for attention and each others’ approval because they can’t get it from individual accomplishments. It exists online, in social media.

Misery does indeed love company. Here, behind a wall of anonymity, the same teenagers band together to cast aspersions on, or worse, mount character assassination campaigns against others whom they secretly envy, or abhor, usually due to the praise heaped upon them for their successes or simply because, they’re what we’d call “normal”.

And here, in social media, the mall rats are joined by supposed adults, who carry on in the same way.

Except they’re not adults. Regrettably, our society is filled with people who chronologically should be adults, but who exhibit all the dysfunctional behavior, or worse, of the mall rats. Raised in an “everyone gets a trophy for showing up” society, where “just do it” (with impunity) is the norm, far too many adults today behave like children. Somewhat surprisingly, there’s evidence that there are some children today who, frankly, behave increasingly like adults, but that phenomenon is still rare and not always healthy. That’s a topic for a different discussion.

Social media was supposed to increase social adhesion, broaden relationships, improve community. Instead, it’s brought isolation, depression, social paraplegia and a veritable explosion of mall rats fearful of missing out (FOMO), all seeking attention and sharing their misery. It’s given a megaphone to those who in other times might have been more sheepish but who can now lash out and shout their frustrations with impunity. And it has amplified the lemming effect as demagogues, both adolescent and adult, lead their followers over the edge of the cliff.

One of my sons, who frequently exhibits far more wisdom at his age than I certainly ever did, recently stated what’s going on quite succinctly: “We have rewired the human condition to subsist on personal validation through social media channels.”

And that has given the mall rats undue power and influence.

To be fair, not all of our generation’s behavior is as bad as that of mall rats. But in small ways the diminution of standards and morals continues to eat away at our societal fabric. For example, I sat at a restaurant just last night and couldn’t help but overhear the conversation between two parents and their college-age son. The topic was adult enough…the son was describing the content of the exams he had recently completed. But the number of “likes” that punctuated each sentence, or more like half-sentences, was nauseating. The parents were, appallingly, every bit as inarticulate as the son, despite between fashionably dressed and ostensibly well-educated and well-to-do.

How are we ever going to remain a light shining on a hill if our people can’t string two grammatically correct sentences together? Yes, yes, I know. This problem exists at the highest levels of our culture and society and in our most visible politics.

But it’s Leftist progressivism, infecting as it has our discourse and society like some noxious gas or metastasized cancer that has given license to adult mall-rat behavior. It’s way past time for adults to start behaving like adults and stop acting like mall rats, or tolerating mall rats for that matter. It’s way past time for parents to start acting like parents, instead of trying to be their children’s best friends. We certainly know better. We just need to grow up.

People Matter

Family, Morality, Society & Culture

Seems it should go without saying, but in this new world of technological wizardry, of AI, virtual reality, deep fake photos, avatars and animojis, where Dick Tracy watches are now a reality, and where communications have been reduced to “txt speak”… face to face and even voice to voice interaction is becoming more and more rare.

Our house has a number of floors. The other day I received a txt message from my wife, who was a couple of floors apart from me, reminding me of something. On one hand this saved her having to either climb several flights of stairs or yell at the top of her lungs to get her message across. On the other, without any tone/voice inflection to the communication, with no body language to see, there were several ways I could have interpreted what she was asking. From how soon I was supposed to get this done to whether there were other options, to any clarification I may have needed or questions that I might have had …you get the idea.

In a 1974 Harvard Business Review article, I was first exposed to the concept of “the monkey on your back.” It describes how one person can transfer a problem (the monkey) off his or her own shoulders and make it his supervisor/manager’s problem. Quoting from the article…

“Let us imagine that a manager is walking down the hall and that he notices one of his subordinates, Jones, coming his way. When the two meet, Jones greets the manager with, “Good morning. By the way, we’ve got a problem. You see….” As Jones continues, the manager recognizes in this problem the two characteristics common to all the problems his subordinates gratuitously bring to his attention. Namely, the manager knows (a) enough to get involved, but (b) not enough to make the on-the-spot decision expected of him. Eventually, the manager says, “So glad you brought this up. I’m in a rush right now. Meanwhile, let me think about it, and I’ll let you know.” Then he and Jones part company.”

What just happened? The monkey got transferred from the subordinate to the manager.

Email, voicemail, texting…these technological ‘solutions’ represent the ultimate in monkey-transferring. How many times have your heard, when asking for an update on an assignment you’ve given someone, “I sent him an email.” How many times have you sent a text message to someone and found yourself irritated when you didn’t get an immediate response? And when was the last time a person actually answered a phone when you had a question in lieu of entering voice-mail-jail? Monkeys are jumping all over the place!

Some of the other effects technology is having on interpersonal communication and relationships:

Superficiality: Some things simply cannot be communicated in a 140 character ‘tweet’ (now, I gather it’s 280 – big whoop!)

Constant Distraction: I’ll address the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) phenomenon in another post, but we’ve all seen what eyes pressed on little screens has done to threaten, perhaps even eliminate concentrating on any one thing. It’s the high-tech equivalent of trying to have a conversation with someone as their eyes dart around the room.

Lack of Privacy: there’s a price to pay for “free”. For example, to get ‘free email’, we give up our privacy. We allow the email service providers access to our communications. The ability of one person to talk in confidence with another goes out the window with technology.

Isolation: everyone has seen how people hide behind technology both creating false impressions of themselves or others, or simply “lurking”, i.e. observing what others are saying and doing. Why actually talk with other people when you can interact with them without every leaving your locked room?

Depersonalization: this is the ultimate “dis” (short in popular culture lingo for disrespect). By avoiding human interaction and communication one is thumbing one’s nose (I can think of another way of saying this using a hand gesture) at anyone and everyone with whom they interact. The lack of direct communication between tech users displays the ultimate disregard for others, i.e. people.

Instead of the pejorative “I’ll have my people get in touch with your people,” soon we’ll be saying, “I’ll have my iPhone get in touch with your iPhone.”

If we are to survive as a civilization, I posit that we will have to restore human to human speech, face to face conversation, and figure out whether we want to remain human, or become human/machine hybrids.

We need to stop hiding behind our technology and start talking to one another again.

People matter.

Globalism

Politics, Society & Culture, Uncategorized

The Left promotes Globalism, along with Multiculturalism, Social and Economic Justice as some sort of enlightened path to Utopia. They condemn sovereignty and patriotism as evils that will bring about an apocalypse. This is a classic case of Projection. Exactly the opposite is true.

As I often find, someone has said it better than I ever could. The following is extracted from an article written in February, 2018 by Vic Biorseth to whom credit is unequivocally due. In his article, he uses the term Marxists. I have interchanged that label with my preferred one: Leftists.

 “Globalism is about removing distinctions. Modern American Leftists simply don’t know right from wrong. It’s been indoctrinated and propagandized out of them. If their formative education was in public (i.e., government) schools, and if all of their advanced education was in the best Ivy League Universities, and if all of their current news sources are restricted to Mainstream News Media sources only, then just about everything they “know” is wrong.”

“They firmly believe in Climate Change, for instance, and a Population Problem, and an Unsustainable Planet, and a future of cultural break-down and Mad-Max imagery of post-civilization dystopia.”

“And they believe that the horrible future of this unsustainable planet may only be delayed for a time by voting for the Democrat Party and supporting the move toward a giant Global Government, because these problems are too big for nations to solve.”

“If you want to see real evidence of real dystopia brought on by the Left, visit San Francisco, one of the most openly Leftist cities on earth. But before you go, you had better examine the new San Francisco Poop Map well ahead of time, to avoid stepping in anything or encountering horrific and potentially infectious noxious odors.”

San Francisco Poop Map

“The map is put out there to allow tourists to avoid the crappier areas of the once beautiful city. It is loaded down with little poop emojis, to show where all the homeless and the illegals are encamping and dumping in public, which are also the most likely places any tourist might be accosted or assaulted. As a Sanctuary City, San Francisco protects the criminals and the illegal aliens from the federal government, and tries very hard to remove all distinctions between them and the regular American citizenry, at least in the minds of the public. And, as good Leftists, they are determined to do it at all costs.”

“Nancy Pelosi was among the Leftists who attacked the President for using the term “Sh*t Hole Countries” referring to all the countries in which the Leftists are encouraging, luring, attracting and perhaps bribing people to illegally migrate here from.”

“As Rush Limbaugh asked recently, what kind of hole would you call San Francisco?”

“Nancy Pelosi’s 12th District appears on the map as a giant pile of poop.”

“The city is experiencing a roaring hepatitis epidemic. Lamp posts, sign posts and buildings are stained, corroded and eroded from human urine. Human feces is common everywhere, and in some places, the smell is simply overwhelming. The transportation authority has stopped video recording of crimes on city transportation, because watching the videos might make people start to “discriminate” against the illegals and the races of the perpetrators. Can’t have that.”

“San Francisco is one of the highest taxed cities on earth. It is a perfect example of actual  Leftist Dystopia portrayed as Utopia.”

“The Leftists,, the UN, the EU, and, believe it or not, Pope Francis, would like to take this sort of thing to the Global Level. They are going all in on the supposed socio-economic Justice of Leftism and Globalism.”

“It is like a cancer. There are no symptoms at first… Cultural Leftism may be the greatest deceptive device ever incorporated by the Leftist drive to world revolution.”

“The threats against freedom are huge. Cultural Leftism comes at us from all angles. It dominates elite thought today. That’s why we, in the hinterlands, the common people who make their way in the world by practicality and common sense, always appear to be in the minority.”  

“Common sense and practicality have a close relationship to Truth.”

“The abandonment of Truth means the acceptance of Nonsense.”

Wow. Wish I could have said it like that.

Some have suggested that we resign from the United Nations and form a new organization of Democracies. The time has come. Globalism is just another meme for the Leftist Utopian fantasies that fail to acknowledge differences, along with cultures, preferences, heritage and so many other distinctions that make up the world, and that have and always will exist.

Nearsightedness

Politics, Reason, Society & Culture

There’s a new narcissism in the land. Too many people view the world through lenses that are two inches in front of their nose. “What does that have to do with ME?”, they either consciously or subconsciously ask. And then they wonder how what’s going on around us got this way.

Some of this nearsightedness is understandable. Those of us with traditional views on hard work, merit, dedication to family, etc. have been too busy to pay attention to, much less do something about what I call Leftist Creep. Except it isn’t creep anymore. It’s a full-fledged tsunami of idiocy: a deafening, shrill assault on values, traditions, norms, fundamental decency and principles that are the bedrock of the greatest nation and force for good the world has ever known.

Some of the nearsightedness is due to self-respect. How could that be? Simple. People who care about their reputations, who truly care about their community and country, who care about how they are perceived by others, don’t seek to draw attention to themselves. They don’t lash out and condemn anyone with whom they disagree with labels and slurs. They’re not activists and community organizers. They’re not loud and noisy and obnoxious. They go to work each day to provide for themselves and their families. They don’t look or ask for handouts. They acknowledge those who truly matter: God, family and friends. They respect the Flag and our country’s position and responsibility as guiding light and standard bearer of freedom and truth to the world. They’re the silent majority. They’re the REAL people of America.

Many are actually clothed in Leftist garb, speak in Leftist terms, and nod when they hear Leftist drivel. But they know something’s terribly wrong with what their leaders are saying. They won’t answer poll questions honestly. To do so would make them outcasts, pariahs, less accepted at cocktail parties where they gush over the latest victim fundraising goals while stuffing their faces with prawns. But they’re the ones who, in the privacy of the voting booth, have the courage and self-awareness to vote for candidates with traditional views and policies that they know made this country great. They are what I call Closet Traditionalists.

One of the insidious strengths of the Progressive Left is that they simply don’t care about what people think of them. They will say and do just about anything to advance their agenda. They don’t care if they make fools of themselves. They’re not even aware that the nonsense that comes out of their mouths or their perverted actions are foolish! They see themselves as righteous social justice warriors, true believers in a utopian fantasy at least. At worst, their ‘leadership’s’ addiction to power and dominion breeds the kind of corruption, anti-American cancer we see advancing day by day.

And because Traditionalists aren’t noisy and obnoxious, and care what others think about us, we have ceded the battleground to the Left. And the Left has taken advantage of our silence and absence, our nearsightedness. The louder and more obnoxious they have become, the more people have been brainwashed by their verbal diarrhea. Even those of us who are focused on what’s right can’t help but slow down and look at the accident by the side of the road. We see the gathering of idiots in the field and the train-wreck happening, and can’t help but be poisoned, even a bit fascinated by the spectacle.

And like the frog in tepid water that remains until it has been boiled…like the death by a thousand cuts, our country is being eaten alive by this Leftist cancer. That’s how we got here. Nearsightedness.

So what do we do about it?

We need to see beyond our noses and have the courage to stand up and throw the BS flag as often and as clearly as needed. We need to strengthen our families and resolve to teach correct principles, to think critically, to not just shield ourselves from Leftist Creep, but fight back against it. It’s nothing short of the war between the between the doers and the slothful, between the producers and the takers, between right and wrong… frankly, between good and evil.

We need 20-20 vision and 24-7-365 action.

How We Think Matters

Reason, Society & Culture

IBM used to give away desk name plates with the word THINK on them. Perhaps that’s what the title of this post should have been. Pausing to think is as much of a challenge today as how one thinks.

We are becoming increasingly scatter-brained. Business and Life at the Speed of Thought leaves no time to smell the roses unless of course the scent comes packaged as aromatherapy. “Ready, fire, aim,” we’re told. “If you snooze you lose.” “Just do it!”

When was the last time you had the patience to watch, much less actually watched a show on television that wasn’t comprised of five minute segments, where the people interviewed weren’t forced to rush their answers because of “hard breaks”? As an aside, when was the last time you saw commentators who actually presented meaningful analysis or had something truly substantive to say? (Answer: the only contemporary show I can think of is “Life, Liberty and Levin”.

FOMO. The Fear of Missing Out. It’s not just a millennial thing. I see countless supposed adults with their noses pinned to small screens studying the latest (within the last 2 minutes) pop-culture meme. Too many of us to block out the real world and live in a virtual one. FOMO causes shallow thinking. No thinking, really…just reaction to often heart-string-tugging snippets or easy-to-remember, catchy slogans and phrases.

Since information, whether true or false, right or wrong, good or bad is always at our fingertips through Google! (it’s a verb now), why bother to memorize, remember or LEARN anything? Fewer and fewer people actually concentrate on a single subject or topic. And thus, increasingly, we have an entire generation who are a mile wide and an inch deep. And fewer and fewer people actually think. Most just respond to stimuli.

What happened to “Less haste, less waste?” What happened to Critical Thinking?

Laziness. What the internet and exponentially growing databases of “stuff” has done is condition people to obtain information from sound bites, with no real depth, no substantive corroboration, no skepticism. If it sounds good, or “feels” right, it’s accepted.

Talk about mind control! The demagogues of the Third Reich would have loved this medium. An ability to influence/brainwash an entire population of dumbed-down, lazy people would have meant we might all be speaking German today! Oh, and by the way, the Russians and Chinese and the LEFT  have figured this out and are doing precisely what the Third Reich would have done…broadcasting propaganda with an efficiency and effectiveness that only “The Matrix” could improve on.

Think. Think! When so much garbage is constantly overloading our input circuits, at an ever-increasing rate, we have to force ourselves to stop and think. And it’s not just stopping to think. It’s compartmentalizing so as to shut out the noise. It’s not just turning off the ring tone. It’s turning off the vibration notification as well. It’s finding a quiet spot and moment amid the chaos to consider what’s important, what really needs to be done, not what the voice in your ear or the face on the screen are telling you to do.

And it’s being skeptical, increasingly. We used to say, “Don’t believe everything you read.” That became, “Don’t believe everything you hear.” Whether you liked him or not, everyone expected and relied on Walter Cronkite to give us Real News. Can you say the same of the 6PM news anchors today? Sure, the Bon Ami folks tried to convince you that their product would’t scratch your porcelain surfaces. But we all recognized that as advertising. Now, “infomercials” abound, and ALL the news is biased, colored, i.e. ‘fake’ in the sense that it never just reports what’s happening. We need to listen to or watch EVERYTHING with a major, not just healthy, dose of skepticism.

It’s sad that we can’t count on anyone or any organization to provide honest information anymore. But that’s the current reality. The only antidote is Critical Thinking – forcing ourselves to sort the wheat from the chaff, to make decisions and form opinions based not on what the firehose of noise directs at us, but on what reasoned judgment emerges from pause and reflection.

In short, don’t just think.

Ponder.

Our Word Matters

Morality, Society & Culture

My Greatest Generation father used to make a distinction between making a promise and giving one’s word. They oughtn’t be different, but he emphasized, “You should be able to count the number of times in your life you give your word on your two hands.”

His point was that giving your word was a sacred oath, to be reserved for the most important commitments of your life, not to be doled out capriciously.

Look at your spouse at the altar and say the words, “I do.” You’re giving your word.

Place your hand on a bible and vow to defend your country. You’re giving your word.

Promise you’ll take out the garbage. That’s rather different.

Giving your word is often expensive, hard and inconvenient, and almost always has a cost. Sometimes it’s a small cost…perhaps even an economic one. At the other end of the spectrum it can have the highest cost of all – the loss of one’s life.

But it’s fundamental to integrity. And integrity is fundamental for trust. It’s also fundamental to one’s reputation, trustworthiness, respectability, dignity, and above all, self-respect. And it’s also about Honor.

These are principles in short supply these days. The constant diet of hypocrisy, deflection, half-truths and outright lies the Left argues is necessary because it serves noble ends such as “Social Justice”, “Equality”, “Fairness”, saving the planet, “freedom” (basically, amoral license to do anything at any time for any reason), etc., leaves no room for the kind of integrity I’m talking about.

That’s the moral bankruptcy of not all but most of the Left, the majority but not all politicians, lawyers, pitchmen, spin doctors and con artists. And it’s, regrettably, reflected in much of what we see on television or hear on the radio.

Giving one’s word, telling the truth, and honoring commitments are fundamental to the fabric of a free society and to growth and prosperity of us as individuals, of our communities and our nation.

Yet I expect that if someone other than a clergyman were to try to explain the merits of giving and keeping one’s word (as I am here) he or she would be laughed at, perhaps even scorned.

“Everybody does it.” “Everyone lies.” “Promises are made to be broken.”

Not true. There are plenty, perhaps even a silent majority of people in this country, who’s word is still their bond. Who will at great cost and sacrifice say what they’ll do and do what they say.

They’re unheralded, unidentified, unacknowledged, but they’re there.

May they continue to honor their commitments, keep their word, and inspire others to do the same.

Keeping one’s word matters.

Economics & Investing

Economy, Finance and Investments

What seems like a hundred years ago as I was applying for college I had no real idea what I wanted to be when I grew up. My Greatest Generation/Product-of-the-Depression/Corporate Treasurer- father’s influence made my default “engineering” and I was better at math and science than other subjects so that sounded about right. Four years later I graduated with a B.A. in Economics.

Economics was so much easier than engineering. In math, physics, chemistry you had to get correct answers. Get one sign wrong in an algebra or calculus problem and you were screwed. There were no points for effort or using the right approach if you ended up with the wrong answer or the machine you were designing/building didn’t work (think Hubble Telescope)!

In Economics, you didn’t need to get the right answer. All you needed to do was understand the theories underlying the various models economists constantly tinker with and regurgitate them. It was all entirely theoretical and so long as you had a reasonable explanation for your argument, and it didn’t contradict what the professor had been preaching throughout the semester, you did well.  

Some economic concepts like the ‘Laws’ of Supply and Demand seem to explain individual, institutional, government and market behavior, but not always! For virtually the whole of economics hinges on two specific assumptions: the Rational Man Hypothesis and the Absence of the Outside Shock. As my boss at a multinational oil company drilled into me, “Assuming something just makes an ass out of u m e.” He was right.

Because there is no such thing as a Rational Man. Mr. Spock, after all, was half Vulcan, so he doesn’t qualify.  The truth is, people don’t make wholly rational decisions. Psychology (another imprecise subject far from engineering) obviously plays a huge roll in decision-making.

Similarly, there are frequently wholly unpredictable outside shocks that screw up the ability of economic models to forecast the future. Outside shocks range from tiny to massive. An unexpected labor report figure on one hand, can have outsized impact. A 9-11 on the other hand, messes up everything! 

Another thing that makes me question the wisdom of economists. The numbers on which the models and theory are built, the numbers that are supposed to support them, are in a word, crap! Wrapping data in fancy PowerPoint presentations or published reports along with charts and graphs and analysis doesn’t mean the data is any good.

I once had the job of collecting health care expenditure data and decided to go right to the source, what was then called HCFA or the Health Care Finance Administration. Interviewing one of their reported top statistical gatherer/analysts on the subject of the percent of Gross National Product being spent on healthcare, I took a detour to ask how they came up with the numbers.

“Do you interview all the hospitals, doctors’ offices, testing laboratories, clinics, etc. to obtain primary source data?”, I asked.

“Oh yes,” the analyst proudly replied, “We use rigorous sampling methods.”

“And how do you know the data the health care providers are giving you is accurate?” I queried.

“We have to rely on what they submit to us,” he explained without an ounce of skepticism.

“And you just take a sample, not a universal survey?” I pressed.

“Yes.” And he went on for five minutes talking about sampling methodologies. And then I asked,

“When did you last take a sample?”

“At the last census,” he said. (At that point it had been six years.)

“So how then do you know if your data for last year is accurate?”

“We apply inflation and other adjustments to the prior year’s data,” he explained.

In short, unverified source data from health care providers obtained not from all health care providers but from a “sampling” of health care providers six years earlier, adjusted each year by “factors” that came out of the head of one analyst or worse, a committee of analysts, resulted in a proclamation, say, “Health Care Expenditures last year represented 10.5% of Gross National Product” that was used in numerous scholarly journals, the Congressional Record, used over and over to justify arguments that expenditures were either too high or too low by self-serving politicians, and also used by investment analysts to justify portfolio and trading decisions.

Yes, it’s a bad as that. Oh, and by the way, there were six other authoritative studies/surveys done by reputable and lauded experts and their institutions that came up with numbers anywhere from 9.875% to 12%! Does that inspire confidence in the wisdom of economists and experts? If you still have doubt, look up the history of Long Term Capital Management. It was staffed with the smartest guys in the world, and crashed, losing BILLIONS!

Investing and Investment Management are activities that benefit mightily from appearances and the chaos.

If there’s one ‘rule’ that, in our opinion, has universal merit at all times and in all situations, it is the one made famous in the 1976 movie All the President’s Men: “Follow the Money.” It doesn’t just apply to corrupt politics. It applies to human behavior generally, and investment management in particular.

I’m not suggesting that altruism doesn’t exist, it does; just look to your church and your community for examples which thankfully, abound. Altruism just doesn’t exist in finance.

While the inability of economists to reliably explain or predict anything is good for economist job security because the further study and refinement of models must therefore continue, it gives rise to a lot of sound bites and platitudes, not to mention “expert” opinions that contradict one another.

So what does all this mean? Here are my conclusions:

There are no absolutes, no formulas, no algorithms, no laws, rules of thumb, or experts, statisticians or economists who can consistently lead you to correct investment decisions. The guy who made a fortune overnight is today a wizard. When he loses the fortune over the next couple of trades he fades into the background.

No-one cares more about your investments than you do. No matter how much they advertise objectivity, expertise and fiduciary responsibility, if you make money, they make money. If you lose money, they make money.

If you feel you must use an investment advisor of any kind, look beyond track record, slick brochures and the charts and graphs. The most important qualities to look for are transparency, honesty, and conservatism. Here’s a hint: if he or she speaks and behaves like a high-flying success, run away as fast as you can. If he or she looks, sounds like and behaves like Warren Buffett, take a closer look.

And finally, consider the cost of advice. It’s often deeply hidden. Insist on and make sure you understand how your investment advisor is compensated for helping you. The compensation of fee-only advisors is a lot easier to understand and evaluate than that of brokers and agents. But even then, is his or her advisory firm affiliated with a broker-dealer through which any investment trades are routed and on which fees are earned and either accumulated or distributed back to the advisor, albeit indirectly? That’s just one example of a conflict that, even if fully disclosed, eludes most clients.

In short… Be skeptical. Think critically. Trust but Verify. And don’t believe everything you read or hear from economists!

Caveat Emptor.

D-Day

History, Society & Culture

This day has great meaning for me. I moved to Paris, France in 1961 and lived there with my parents through the turbulent 60’s until I came home for college in 1970. During those years I had the opportunity to walk the beaches and streets of the towns that constituted the battlefields of the allied invasion on June 6, 1944.

I attended the commemoration in Normandy on June 6th, 1964, only twenty years after it occurred, when what happened there was still fresh in the minds of many. At that time there were still Frenchmen and Frenchwomen who remembered the Americans coming ashore in Normandy. My own French teacher at the American School of Paris was a member of the French Resistance.

As is true here, the attitude of those in the French countryside is vastly different from that of the large cities. I’ll never forget one trip we took to Normandy by car sometime in the mid 60’s. It was one of those foggy, grey days, and around lunchtime, we found ourselves somewhere on the backroads trying to find a place to have a quick bite to eat before heading to our next destination.

Fast food hardly existed in France in the 60’s generally, and in the French countryside, it was unheard of. Seeing a sign on a byway that simply said “restaurant” with an arrow pointing up a country lane towards what looked like a modest chateau on a hill, we shrugged and followed the unpaved lane to the entrance.

The restaurant didn’t appear to be open. There were no cars in the courtyard, no sign of activity. We were about to turn around to leave when suddenly an elderly gentleman came out the door and approached us, beckoning us to come in. In our broken French we explained we were looking for a spot to have lunch and he assured us that they would be happy to serve us. So we went in for a quick bite to eat.

Several hours later we left having had one of the most memorable meals and experiences of our lives. For we were welcomed into the proprietor’s home and ‘restaurant’ not just with open arms, but with a reverence and respect that I had never before encountered in France, just because we were American. In Paris “Ugly Americans” were treated with disdain and disrespect, an attitude I had thought was ubiquitous.

The husband and wife who owned the chateau and restaurant were there on D-Day. Paratroopers landed on their grounds the night of June 5th and subsequently, as the invasion moved inland off the beaches, they housed American, British and Canadian soldiers. Their home was a makeshift hospital at one point. They remembered vividly and clearly every facet of that first 72 hours of the battle as they recounted story after story with deep sincerity and moist eyes.

We had ordered the standard steak and fries fare for lunch. After all, we were looking for “fast food” and that was usually the menu item most quickly produced in most french cafés and restaruants. However, our hosts insisted on bringing us appetizers, a leek “potage” (thick soup), fresh-from-the-oven “pain de campagne” (hefty country bread), and, anxious to ensure we were happy with our meal, madam and monsieur spent so much time around our table we invited them to sit down and join us, which is when the stories about D-Day emerged.

I’ll never forget that after more than two hours of eating and talking and toasting, for our hosts offered numerous toasts to the Americans who fought for them in June 1944, , to America in general, to the Brits, to the allies, and even to us who were seated at their table…there must have been a dozen toasts and mini speeches, madame emerged from the kitchen with a fresh-made apple tart the size of a medium pizza which she had surreptitiously baked specially for us while we were eating our main meal. With ceremony she presented it as a gift, an emblem of her gratitude that we had deigned to visit their home and restaurant.

Never before had I witnessed such profound respect and admiration of America and Americans as I did that day. And notwithstanding the obnoxious teenager that I was, I couldn’t help but tingle with pride as these good residents of Normandy repeatedly thanked us, as if we had stormed the beaches or dropped from planes on their lawn ourselves.

So as I watched the ceremonies for the 75th anniversary of D-Day on tv today, I was reminded of the pride I have for our country and the force for good it has been since its founding. And I was reminded of my own experiences in Normandy, and of my profound gratitude and reverence for the sacrifices made by those who fought and died there 75 years ago.

May God bless their souls and notwithstanding its faults and many problems, may God forever bless the United States of America.

Projection

Politics, Reason, Society & Culture

Most definitions of psychological projection begin by stating that it’s a defense mechanism. Perhaps some unconsciously use it to protect themselves from looking in the mirror, but shrill politicians and their operatives use it consciously as an offensive mechanism.

It’s like little children on the playground. “You did it!” “No, I didn’t, YOU did it!” One can almost visualize the scene.

As with most behaviors, there are abundant examples of projection on both sides of the political aisle. However, as with most bad behavior, the Left is guilty of much greater frequency and abundance than the Right (see previous post entitled “It’s a Question of DEGREE!). And while the Right’s use of projection usually amounts to peccadilloes, on the Left its use is egregious!

Some examples:

  • The Left says the Right is bereft of morals while promoting promiscuity, infanticide, drug abuse, profanity, homosexuality, profligacy, illegal immigration, etc.
  • The Left condemns the use of fossil fuels and the companies that supply them while freely using their cars and planes.
  • The Left calls the Right fascist at the drop of a hat, while Antifa is precisely the opposite of its name.
  • The Left cries “racism” so frequently serious people don’t even bother to defend themselves against the labeling. It’s laughable that those who scream the accusation the loudest are themselves the poster children for racism.

I could go on and on. But if you’ve read this far, I’m preaching to the choir. You know precisely what I’m talking about and are probably as disgusted by the Leftist talking heads and rhetoric as I.

The question is, with a gullible, dumbed-down population receiving a constant dose of Leftist drivel, how do we combat the false impression created by their projection, and return to civility and equal time for traditional views?

Unfortunately, there is no high road to be taken. The megaphone the Internet and social media has placed in the hands of the Left has given them influence far beyond what they should have and certainly far more than they deserve.

The only answer is to fight fire with fire. That’s not to suggest the Right should engage in projection itself. It is to suggest that traditionalists cannot afford to let the “airwaves” be filled with Leftist nonsense and allow that nonsense to go unchallenged. We must use the megaphone ourselves, broadcasting what is right (Right) and counter punching and challenging every incidence of Leftist projection and other hypocritical behavior.

It’s ok to have opposing views. What’s not ok is to stand on the playground screaming projection epithets, accusations and patently false labels at others. Sometimes the playground bully is only silenced when the normally reticent recipient of that bullying runs up and punches the bully in the nose.

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