Author: grumpsny

The stock market has crashed. Unemployment is skyrocketing. The number of confirmed Wuhan Virus (that’s what I call it) cases is growing exponentially. Grocery store shelves are bare. Gun sales are going through the roof. Office buildings in Manhattan are empty. People are walking around with masks. Schools are cancelled. The internet is bogging down because so many people are home its vaunted capacity (bandwidth) is proving to be inadequate for the demand. California is “locked down”. Hell has broken loose.

However… “The wonderful thing about Tiggers is, tiggers is wonderful things. Their tops are made of rubber, and their tails are made of springs. They’re bouncy, flouncy, trouncy, pouncy, full of fun, fun fun. The wonderful thing about Tiggers is, I’m the only one.” Substitute Americans for tiggers and you’ll have a hint as to why despite the misery and impending doom I’m optimistic for the future.  

My thoughts…

1.            As bad as the pandemic is, it’s not as bad as you think. Simple arithmetic coupled with basic critical thinking points to the conclusion that greater than 99% of everyone who contracts the disease will recover, and we don’t know of course how many people WILL or WILL NOT contract it. Thousands get sick and many die each day from heart disease, cancer, jaywalking, ‘regular’ flu and chronic lung disease from smoking, etc. As of this morning, ~a quarter of a million people WORLDWIDE have been confirmed to have the virus, ~10,000 people WORLDWIDE have died from the virus, and ~86,000 have recovered. These numbers are DWARFED by regular flu.  In the U.S., ~15,000 people have confirmed cases and ~100 people have died. This flu season alone (roughly from October 2019 to the present) 31MM people IN THE UNITED STATES (!) have had the flu. Somewhere around 275,000 give or take have had to be hospitalized, and as many as 30,000 (vs. 100) have died from run-of-the-mill flu! (See  https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year for a plain language discussion.) Translation – this isn’t anywhere near as bad as the media and politicians would have you believe.

2.            Despite what you hear or see, the government is doing the right things. They may not in all cases being doing things right, but the medical, logistical, economic and societal response is “gettin’ ‘er done”. I expect the response is even overdone if you look at the statistics in the previous paragraph. So, for example, NOT EVERYONE NEEDS A TEST! If you get sick, sure, go get a test. But it’s self-centered, selfish and “looking out for number one” just to confirm you’re NOT sick, and may deprive someone who really needs to be tested from getting the help they need. Testing is NOT a cure, and satisfying statistical number crunching is nowhere near as important as preventing and treating the actual disease. Mobilization and coordination among all the health care agencies, departments and the private sector is exactly what is needed, and again, no matter what you hear, there are very competent people who care about others and this country hard at work on the problems. Have some faith in them!

The backstopping of employers in various ways and the anticipated support given to individuals and families is being matched by lenders, landlords, tax collectors… you name it. Everyone’s in this and making accommodations following the lead of the federal, state and local governments.

Just remember that “the government” is made up of people who have the same hopes, dreams, fears, constraints, problems as everyone else in the country. The vast majority are working their asses off to help and do what’s right within their on organizations and spheres of influence. I had to go to the department of motor vehicles the other day. Everyone there had taken a large dose of patience pills and I was both shocked and thrilled to see how both the people behind the counter and in front of it were behaving.

The government, of course, is damned if they do and damned if they don’t, but on balance, its response to this crisis has been overwhelmingly appropriate and helpful. Its communications, despite the handwringing and teeth-gnashing of a “if it bleeds it leads” media has been solid, optimistic, informative and suitably cautionary as to get virtually the whole nation (except the Florida beach Spring Break party animals) to respond as it should. This all happened in a matter of days, unlike the responses during the H1N1, SARS, MERS and other pandemics.

3.            Gas prices and interest rates are falling. The one commodity everyone needs is fuel, and the stimulating effect of a drop in gas prices to the ~$2.00 – ~$2.50 level is incredibly impactful on regular budgets. This will benefit us all, except of course for oil producers. But Washington is on to the Russian and Saudi’s game to try to destroy our energy-independent status and crush our shale industry, and are NOT going to let them get away with it. Similarly, we’re not standing idly by while China spews its propaganda and stomps its feet and blames our military for what they caused or worse, threatens us with withholding drugs such that we become “awash in a sea of Coronavirus”. We’ve thrown the bull#%*& flag on that already and will continue to rub China’s nose in the mess they’ve created and left on the world’s floor. Xenophobic? No, just highlighting the truth in the face false accusations.

4.            One of the silver linings in this mess is the awakening that has occurred among government, industry and the American people that we must no longer be held hostage by foreign manufacturers and suppliers. The Globalist agenda has been thoroughly trounced by this exposure of its flaws, and bringing our manufacturing and supply chains home may result in higher priced goods, but we’ll all benefit in the long run.

5.            Kids are getting educated again. Home schooling is exposing the inadequacies, biases and absurdities of the current state of our education system. Parents are waking up to what is being taught, and what is NOT being taught to our children. I predict that for whatever time period home-schooling prevails, our kids will get a BETTER education than what they’re getting at school, and teachers will be astonished when students return at how far they’ve advanced. You heard it from me first.

6.            Neighbors are helping neighbors. Our little local email chain is lit up with offers of help and assistance. People are getting outside and checking on each other from afar (i.e. more than six feet). Kids are teaching parents and grandparents about Facetime, Skype and Zoom. And Animal Planet is running shows about carefree kittens and puppies. Come on…how much better is it to watch than the gloom and doom on broadcast tv?

7.            People are learning who their leaders are. Not the ones with the titles, but the ones who are true leaders as opposed to managers and demagogues. True leaders step up in times of crisis and go to the front of the crowd, carry a light and turn back to shout encouragement and instill confidence in others. People who may have labored in the shadows or punched well below their weight are now emerging as the shepherds of our society. This separating of the leaders from the followers can only be a positive development.

8.            The Silent Majority is silent no more. Having to adapt to the situation, conservatives and the Right who normally are head down working and caring for themselves and their families are speaking up and speaking out. They are not just throwing the BS flag on politically correct nonsense, they are ignoring social engineering and all its related evils and practicing true philanthropy and real, beneficial community activism.

9.            Complacency is evaporating. It’s amazing what being forced to rely on fundamentals and things that matter will do to a spoiled and coddled population. In the face of what’s going on, do people really care what the Kardashians think?

10.          Faith is making a comeback. It’s sad but true that there are no atheists in foxholes. We’re rediscovering our faith despite not being able to attend Church. And whether it’s one religion or another, it’s the common principles of right and wrong, goodness versus evil and a belief in a set of universal truths that are moving back into the public consciousness. This is a good thing.

11.          Families are getting to know one another again. Yes, we’re cooped up and hunkered down. And things get testy at times as we bumble around in each other’s way. But for many of us, we’re forced to seek virtue: patience, understanding, caring for one another, and learning anew about each other. It doesn’t take a village, it takes a family, and families are binding together out of necessity and love.

And finally, THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON I’M OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE is that America has the most natural and other resources of any nation on earth. We can produce enough of EVERYTHING to take care of ourselves and help the rest of the world to boot. We have the smartest people. We have a spirit of “can do” that is unparalleled on the planet. Many nations think we’re brash, loud, obnoxious, overly proud and nationalistic and hate us for our bad manners and profligacy. So be it. I’d rather live in the United States than in any other country. We will not only get through this, but emerge stronger than ever and once again, we’ll be the city set on a hill letting our light so shine as to be a beacon of freedom and prosperity to the entire world.

I’m a pragmatist, and I recognize the challenges that lie ahead to recover from this mess. But I believe with every fiber of my being that things are going to be better than ok, and sooner than the so-called experts predict. I’m not suggesting we all go Hakuna Matata on this, but let’s put things in perspective shall we?

May God continue to bless us. And may God continue to bless America.