Category: Headlines

Spin vs. Lies

Headlines, Morality, Politics, Religion

As I have often stated, one can find evidence of what I’ll call “bad stuff”: bad rhetoric, bad behavior, on both sides of the political spectrum. However, the AMOUNT of bad stuff rendered by the Left dwarfs by several orders of magnitude the amount from the Right. Often it’s difficult to discern what is “spin” or trying to cast things in the best light, versus falsehood. What’s so extraordinary right now is that the Left doesn’t even try to ‘spin’ anymore. They out and out lie and expect cover from a sycophant main street media.

For instance, let’s take Trump’s spin on not disclosing his income tax returns. Anyone who prepares a long form tax return knows that even if it’s permissible to publish them in the middle of an audit, it’d be completely stupid to do so. Being under audit means there’s a dispute with the IRS and the last thing anyone should do is go public with their numbers…it would obviously prejudice the negotiations against the taxpayer!

Now, could there be other reasons why Trump wouldn’t want to disclose his returns? Yes, because returns require that one disclose assets, under penalty of perjury, and the VALUATION of an asset is always subjective. Trump says he is worth $10 billion. That could be true, if his assets are worth more than the difference between their value and his total debt (that’s the very definition of “worth”). Could the accountants and the IRS disagree on their value? Absolutely, and he may really be worth anywhere from nothing to some amount far greater than $10 billion. It doesn’t matter. He’s obviously rich, made a lot of money as a real estate developer, and paid a LOT in taxes over the years. The $750 canard is an attempt by the Left to suggest he paid little to no tax. Again, anyone with any knowledge of tax return preparation knows that amounts paid and amounts due vary tremendously across multiple years, and it’s entirely possible that Trump would have paid millions one year and not only pay nothing in a subsequent year, but even get a refund! Is he trying to spin this situation to cast things in the best light? Of course he is! But I’ll bet the accountants and tax attorneys working on his returns and negotiating with the IRS are doing everything they can to AVOID taxes, which is perfectly legal and appropriate for ANYONE to do in the U.S., rather than EVADE taxes, which is of course illegal!

Contrast the example of spin, described above, with Biden’s outright lies, which are deliberate falsehoods meant to deceive and deflect from the truth. These have been documented widely. Rather than reproduce them here, I’ll simply point you to the October 23, 2020 National Review article entitled “Biden Lies Again and Again” available here. Note, by the way, that the National Review is no tabloid.

The Left, as I’ve said before, will do ANYTHING, including outright lie, to achieve power. Biden, the consummate career politician, will do and continues to do the same.

That so many Americans will vote to grant power to the Democrats in this election is evidence of how effective their lying has been and how gullible so many have become. Just about half of the electorate now consists of voters who are either brainwashed, asleep, so anxious to be liked they have become lemmings, following the ‘woke’ celebrities with whom they’d like to identify, or, unfortunately, so lazy they’ll just vote the way they always have, or the way they were raised to vote. Never mind they’re shooting themselves in some vulnerable, private part, it’s more important that they be either anti-Trump or have the same signs as their neighbors than do what’s in their best self-interest, or in the interest of the country.

Optimistically, I don’t think the majority of Americans fall under the above description. Rather, they’re so busy working to take care of themselves and their families they don’t participate in polls, don’t talk about what they think, and don’t care what the ‘woke’ crowd says or does. It’s a small majority, regrettably, but a majority nonetheless. Because of the way the electoral map’s arithmetic works, it’s obvious that having more of the popular vote from New York, California and Illinois can and will still result in a victory for the Right on November 3rd. I’m quietly confident, however, this time the silent majority will speak up and the Right will win the popular vote as well as the electoral vote, resulting in a clear MANDATE (more on this in the future) to continue to reject Leftism.

Some Random Thoughts for the Day – October 15, 2020

America, Economy, Education, Family, Government, Headlines, Health Care, Media, Morality, Politics, Reason, Science, Society & Culture, Technology, Values

There is so much to analyze, so much to comment on, so much to write about, I think today I’ll just list bullet points. Please click below to read them…

  • The chaos being sewn by both parties, but particularly and obviously that by the Left, is deliberate. It makes it difficult for many to sort fact from fiction, to sort honesty from dishonesty. Only clear-headed Americans with open minds and critical thinking skills will be able to discern truth from lies.
  • The Left, and I’ve said this before, will stop at NOTHING to defeat Donald Trump and the Republicans this election cycle. Couched in a wide range of statesman-like rhetoric (e.g. Dick Durbin) to outright obnoxious, poisonous and odious verbal diarrhea (e.g. Kamala Harris) the Left is throwing anything and everything at the wall in hopes something will stick.
  • If you look up “unhinged” in the dictionary, Nancy Pelosi’s picture should be next to the definition. Her performance with Wolf Blitzer on CNN simply says it all. You can’t make this stuff up.
  • As evidence of how on the one hand our country is innovative as hell, and on the other how crazy it’s becoming, I offer the fact that Hormel is now offering face masks with the scent of bacon. ‘Nuff said.
  • New bumper sticker: “My expert/scientist is bigger than your expert/scientist”.
  • Seen on a trail in the middle of nowhere in the High Peaks Wilderness of the Adirondacks a couple of weeks ago: a family, all wearing masks, including the family dog!
  • I predict the barons of Wall Street, in a final attempt to knock Trump down, will tank the market just before the election.
  • There is corruption on both sides of the political swamp, but the Clintons, Bidens, and their ilk truly are the varsity, All-American champions. Tell me how a so-called public servant his entire life, Joe Biden, is fabulously wealthy (and don’t say because Jill Biden is a physician… she didn’t make THAT much over the years). Don’t even try to justify the Biden family’s “business interests” that were implicitly, if not explicitly tied to his government positions as less than major conflicts of interest, whether ‘legal’ or not! As for the Clintons…the $100,000 commodities trading scandal was nothing compared to what they extracted and continue to extract from the Clinton Foundation into which influence buyers poured tens of millions of dollars! Again, legal or not, it stinks to high heaven!
  • Amy Comey Barrett is a superstar, and it’s not because of her technically perfect performance before the Senate Judiciary Committee. It’s because she acts, behaves and speaks like a NORMAL PERSON with solid traditional values – a role model if ever there was one.
  • Anybody with half a brain knows how corrupt and biased the so-called mainstream media is. The Twitter and Facebook censorship of the NY Post article on Hunter Biden that was published yesterday underscores just how corrupt and biased Silicon Valley is as well.
  • How any self-respecting citizen of our country could believe the Left’s lies, distortions, deflections, dissembling, denigrating, deceit, whining and histrionics is truly a sad commentary on our society.
  • The Republican outcry against the already evident problems with this election’s ballots may be enough to scare or at least influence ballot counters, poll watchers and voters to be vigilant. Contrary to what’s being trumpeted, I think there’s a good chance we WILL know the outcome of the election the night of November 3rd. The lawsuits and s#$%-show that will inevitably continue (they’ve already started) post November 3rd will not change a clear outcome.
  • Yogi Berra where are you when we need you. Your sayings, “It’s like “déjà vu all over again” and “It ain’t over till it’s over” have never been more apt.
  • Conservatives and Republicans don’t participate in polls and don’t put lawn signs up in Blue and Purple States.
  • “My Doctor is Bigger than Your Doctor” too!
  • School age kids are suffering. The Left doesn’t give a damn…they just want to use their new teaching platform to indoctrinate them through the medium they’re most used to. Teaching has now become a “social media” activity…
  • If you don’t want to be shot by a citizen defending himself or herself or by a law enforcement officer, it’s simple… don’t: a) hang out with the wrong people at the wrong times in the wrong places, b) strictly obey law enforcement’s commands, c) don’t threaten in an attempt to be macho, d) don’t be insolent, condescending…show respect for law enforcement, e) don’t do things that are, simply, ILLEGAL, e.g. riot, loot, destroy property, trespass, physically assault others, carry an unlicensed firearm or other deadly force object and misuse it, etc. etc.!
  • Life begins at conception, period. If you don’t want to have a baby, practice contraception, not infanticide.
  • Labels like socialism, marxism, white supremacy, ‘Karen’, oppressed, victim, racism, white privilege, etc. etc. are empty when not properly and adequately defined and explained. They’re just labels intended to incite positive or negative ‘feelings’ and simply should be ignored!
  • The lines will be long on election day. Try not to be too impatient and plan on going early and staying as long as you have to to make your vote count!

Before You Panic

America, Government, Headlines, Health Care, Politics, Society & Culture

Ok, so the inevitable happened. The Trumps have tested positive for the virus. The sky is falling. Biden has won the election, the Democrats will take over America and all is lost. STOP! There’s another, more likely outcome. The President and his wife remain asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms, or get sick and recover quickly, and will prove:

1.            That testing positive is not a death sentence, even with co-morbidities.

2.            That even if sick, one can continue working and being productive.

3.            If they remain asymptomatic, we can perhaps put to rest the notion that a positive test equals a “case”, i.e. one will automatically become terribly ill. (I suspect if you tested the air in your local grocery store you’d find that the store itself is a case!!!)

4.            The courage and positive mental attitude he will exhibit will reveal true leadership qualities that will rally the entire world around Trump and his administration much as it did for Boris Johnson, who recovered even though he got very sick.

5.            The Lefts’ histrionics will further expose their treasonous attempts to seize power and fundamentally transform our country thus causing a backlash that will INCREASE the margin of victory for the GOP rather than diminish it.

Big screen tv’s should be placed at the rallies Trump planned to attend. I’ll bet even MORE people will show up to demonstrate their support. He will stream live from the White House and the response will generate a political antibody that will crush the whining, sniveling, cowardly and nefarious antics of his opponents.

You heard it from me first. Hang in there America, the Leftist Hydra’s life is about to be extinguished.

The COVID Scam – Redux

Headlines, Health Care, Media, Politics, Reason, Science, Society & Culture

Once again, someone has better articulated what I’ve been saying for months and months. The numbers are either: a) flat out wrong due to error or falsification, b) they can be and have been cherry-picked and manipulated in a hundred different ways to support preferred, biased conclusions, c) the Left has hijacked the terminology, yet again, to misrepresent the data, d) the goal of the Left has been to make things seem as bad as they can be so they will win in November and regain power.

The essence of the hoax is the use of the term “case”. There must be a distinction made between a real “case”, defined as someone who tests positive AND has SYMPTOMS, and one who tests positive WITHOUT symptoms, i.e. who is symptomless. Similarly, there is a difference between “Case Fatality Rate” and “Infection Fatality Rate”. The two terms are gratuitously and nefariously conflated to make things appear to be many times worse than what they are.

A Scottish doctor, Malcolm Hendrick, has nailed it. Trust your own judgment as to whether what he cites and explains makes sense to you. It certainly does to me…

Here’s the link to read the original: https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters It’s really worth reading the whole thing, which I quote fully, below.

COVID – why terminology really, really matters

4th September 2020
COVID – why terminology really, really matters [And the consequences of getting it horribly wrong]

When is a case not a case?

Since the start of the COVID pandemic I have watched almost everyone get mission critical things wrong. In some ways this is not surprising. Medical terminology is horribly imprecise, and often poorly understood. In calmer times such things are only of interest to research geeks like me. Were they talking about CVD, or CHD?

However, right now, it really, really, matters. Specifically, with regard to the term COVID ‘cases.’

Every day we are informed of a worrying rise in COVID cases in country after country, region after region, city after city. Portugal, France, Leicester, Bolton. Panic, lockdown, quarantine. In France the number of reported cases is now as high as it was at the peak of the epidemic. Over 5,000, on the first of September.

But what does this actually mean? Just to keep the focus on France for a moment. On March 26th, just before their deaths peaked, there were 3,900  ‘cases’. Fourteen days later, there were 1,400 deaths. So, using a widely accepted figure, which is a delay of around two weeks between diagnoses and death, 36% of cases died.

In stark contrast, on August 16th, there were 3,000 cases. Fourteen days later there were 26 deaths.  Which means that, in March, 36% of ‘cases’ died. In August 0.8% of ‘cases’ died. This, in turn, means that COVID was 45 times as deadly in March, as it was in August?

This seems extremely unlikely. In fact, it is so unlikely that it is, in fact, complete rubbish. What we have is a combination of nonsense figures which, added together, create nonsense squared. Or nonsense to the power ten.

To start with, we have the mangling of the concept of a ‘case’.

Previously, in the world of infectious diseases, it has been accepted that a ‘case’ represents someone with symptoms, usually severe symptoms, usually severe enough to be admitted to hospital. Here, from Wikipedia…. yes, I know, but on this sort of stuff they are a good resource.

‘In epidemiology, a case fatality rate (CFR) — sometimes called case fatality risk or disease lethality — is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of symptomatic people diagnosed with the disease.’ 1

Note the word symptomatic i.e. someone with symptoms.

However, now we stick a swab up someone’s nose, who feels completely well, or very mildly ill. We find that they have some COVID particles lodged up there, and we call them a case of COVID. Sigh, thud!

A symptomless, or even mildly symptomatic positive swab is not a case. Never, in recorded history, has this been true. However, now we have an almost unquestioned acceptance that a positive swab represents a case of COVID. This is then parroted on all the news channels as if it were gospel.

I note that, at last, some people are beginning to question how it can be that, whilst cases are going up and up, deaths are going down, and down.

This is even the case in Sweden, which seems to be the final bastion of people with functioning brains. However, even they seem surprised by this dichotomy. In the first two weeks of August they had 4,152 positive swabs. Yet, in the last two weeks of August, they had a mere 14 deaths (one a day, on average).

That represents 1 death for every 300 positive swabs or, as the mainstream media insists on calling them, positive ‘cases’. Which, currently, represent a case fatality rate of 0.33%. Just to compare that with something similar, the case fatality rate of swine flu (HIN1),  was 0.5%. 2

Thus, lo and behold, COVID is a less severe infection than swine flu – the pandemic that never was. That’s what these figures appear to tell us. They tell us almost exactly the same in France where they ‘appear’ to have a current case fatality rate of 0.4%.

On the other hand, if you look at the figures from around the world, they are very different. As I write this there have been, according to the WHO, 25 million cases and 850,000 deaths. That is a case fatality rate of more than 3%. Ten times as high.

Why are these figures so all over the place? It is because we are using horribly inaccurate terminology. We are comparing apples with pomegranates to tell us how many bananas we have. Our experts are, essentially, talking gibberish, and the mainstream media is lapping it up. They are defining asymptomatic swabs as cases, and no-one is calling them out on it. Why?

Because… because they are frightened of looking stupid? Primarily, I believe, because they also have no idea what a case might actually be So, it all sounds quite reasonable to them.

The good news

However, moving on from that nonsense, there is some extremely good news buried in here. Which I am going to try and explain. It goes as follows.

At the start of the epidemic, the only people being tested were those who were being admitted to hospital, who were seriously ill. Many of them died. Which is why, in France, there was this very sharp, initial case fatality rate of 35%. In the UK the initial case fatality rate was I think 14%. Last time I looked at the UK figures, the case fatality was 5%, and falling fast.

This fall has occurred, and will occur everywhere in the World, because as you increase your testing, you pick up more and more people with less severe symptoms. People who are far less likely to die. The more you test, the more the case fatality rate falls.

It falls even more dramatically when you start to test people who have no symptoms at all. In fact, as you broaden your testing net, something else very important happens. You gradually move from looking at the case fatality rate to the infection fatality rate.

The infection fatality rate is the measure of how many people who are infected [even those without symptoms, or very mild symptoms] who then die. This is the critical figure to know because it gives you an accurate assessment of the total number of deaths you are likely to see.

IFR x population of a country x % of population infected = total number of deaths (total mortality)

So, where have we got to. Well, although the case fatality rate in the UK still currently stands at 5%, because it is dragged up by the 14% rate we had at the start. If we look at the more recent figures things have changed very dramatically.

In the first two weeks of August there were 13,996 positive swabs in the UK. In the second two weeks of August there were 129 deaths. If you consider every positive swab to be a case, this represents a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Around one fifteenth of that seen at the start.

I think you can clearly see a direction of travel here.

  • At the start on the pandemic we had a, brief, 35% fatality rate in France
  • It was 14% in the UK at the start
  • It now sits at 5% in the UK – over the whole pandemic
  • In August, in the UK, it was down to 0.9%
  • It is currently 0.47% in Germany
  • It is currently 0.4% in France
  • It is currently 0.33% in Sweden

It is falling, falling, everywhere. Where does it end up, this hybrid case/infection fatality rate? Remember, we are still only testing a fraction of the population, so we are missing the majority of people who have been infected, mainly those who do not have symptoms. Which means that these rates must fall further, as they always do in any pandemic.

To quote the Centre for Evidence Base Medicine on the matter:

‘In Swine flu, the IFR (infection fatality rate) ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak).’ 3

The best place to estimate where we may finally end up with COVID, is with the country that has tested the most people, per head of population. This is Iceland. To quote the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine once more:

‘In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies somewhere between 0.03% and 0.28%.’ 3

Sitting in the middle of 0.03% and 0.28% is 0.16%. As you can see, Iceland, having tested more people than anywhere else, has the lowest IFR of all. This is not a coincidence. This is an inevitable result of testing more people.

I am going to make a prediction that, in the end, we will end up with an IFR of somewhere around 0.1%. Which is about the same as severe flu pandemics we have had in the past. Remember that figure. It is one in a thousand.

It may surprise you to know that I am not the only person to have made this exact same prediction. On the 28th February, yes that far back, the New England Journal of Medicine published a report by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD (A.S.F., H.C.L.); and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta. 4

In this paper ‘Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted’ they stated the following:

‘On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate (my underline) may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza.’ 

A case fatality rate considerably less than 1%. Their words, not mine. As they also added, ‘the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza.’ 

At this point, you may well be asking. Why the hell did we lockdown if COVID was believed to be no more serious than influenza? Right from the start by the most influential infectious disease organisations in the World.

It is because of the mad mathematical modellers. The academic epidemiologists. Neil Ferguson, and others of his ilk. When they were guessing (sorry estimating, sorry modelling) the impact of COVID they used a figure of approximately one per cent as the infection fatality rate. Not the case fatality rate. In so doing, they overestimated the likely impact of COVID by, at the very least, ten-fold.

How could this possibly have happened?

When they put their carefully constructed model together on the 16th of March, if they had been reading the research, they must have been aware that they were looking at a maximum case fatality rate of just over 1% in China, right at the start, where the figures are always at their highest.

Which means that, unless COVID was going to turn out nearly 100% fatal, we could never get anywhere near 1%, for the infection fatality rate. Even Ebola only kills 50%.

But they went with it, they went with 1%. Actually, Imperial College reduced it slightly to 0.9%, for reasons that are opaque.

From this, all else flowed.

If the INFECTION fatality rate truly were 0.9%, and 80% of the population of the UK became infected, there would have been/could have been, around 500,000 deaths.

0.9% x 80% x 67million = 482,000

LOCKDOWN

However, if the case fatality rate is around 1%, then the infection fatality rate will be about one tenth of this, maybe less. So, we would see around 50,000 deaths, about the same as was seen in previous bad flu pandemics.

DO NOT LOCKDOWN

What Imperial College London did was to use a model that overestimated the infection fatality rate by a factor of ten.

We now know, as the IFR rates of various countries falls and falls, that the Imperial College estimated IFR was completely wrong. The UK, for example, has seen 42,000 deaths so far, which is 0.074% of population. The US has seen about 200,000 deaths 0.053%. Sweden, which did not lockdown down, has seen about 6,000 deaths, which is an infection fatality rate of 0.06%. All three countries are opening up and opening up. Whilst the ‘cases’ are rising and rising, the deaths continue to fall. They are, to all intents and purposes, flatlining.

In Iceland it is around 0.16% and falling. In other words…

Stop panicking – it’s over

Whilst everyone is panicking about the ever-increasing number of cases, we should be celebrating them. They are demonstrating, very clearly, that COVID is far, far, less deadly then was feared. The Infection Fatality Rate is most likely going to end up around 0.1%, not 1%.

So yes, it does seem that ‘the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza.’

Wise words, wise words indeed. Words that were written by one Anthony S Fauci on the 28th of February 2020. If you haven’t heard of him, look him up.

Critically though, eleven days after this, he rather blotted his copybook, because he went on to say this “The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This (COVID) has a mortality rate of 10 times that. That’s the reason I want to emphasize we have to stay ahead of the game in preventing this.” 5

The mortality rate Dr Fauci? Could it possibly be that he failed to understand that there is no such thing as a mortality rate? Did he mean the case fatality rate, or the infection fatality rate? If he meant the Infection mortality rate of influenza, he was pretty much bang on. If he meant the case fatality rate, he was wrong by a factor of ten.

The reality is that, no matter what Fauci went on to say, severe influenza has a case fatality rate of 1%, and so does COVID. They also have approximately the same infection fatality fate of 0.1%.

It seems that Dr Fauci just got mixed up with the terminology. Because in his Journal article eleven days earlier, he did state… ‘This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza… [and here is the kicker at the end] (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%).’

You see, he did say the case fatality rate of influenza was approximately 0.1%. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong… wrong.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. With influenza, Dr Fauci, the CDC, his co-authors, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Institutes of Health and the New England Journal of Medicine got case fatality rate and infection fatality rate mixed up with influenza. Easy mistake to make. Could have done it myself. But didn’t.

You want to know where Imperial College London really got their 1% infection fatality rate figure from? It seems clear that they got it from Anthony S Fauci and the New England Journal of Medicine. The highest impact journal in the world – which should have the highest impact proof-readers in the world. But clearly does not.

Imperial College then used this wrong NEJM influenza case fatality rate 0.1%. It seems that they then compared this 0.1% figure to the reported COVID case fatality rate, estimated to be 1% and multiplied the impact of COVID by ten – as you would. As you probably should.

So, we got Lockdown. The US used the Fauci figure and got locked down. The world used that figure and got locked down.

That figure just happens to be ten times too high.

I know it is going to be virtually impossible to walk the world back from having made such a ridiculous, stupid, mistake. There are so many reputations at stake. The entire egg production of the world will be required to supply enough yolk to cover appropriate faces.

Of course, it will be denied, absolutely, vehemently, angrily, that anyone got anything wrong. It will be denied that a simple error, a mix up between case fatality and infection fatality led to this. It will even more forcefully stated that COVID remains a deadly killer disease and that all Governments around the world have done exactly the right thing. The actions were right, the models were correct. We all did the RIGHT thing. Only those who are stupid, or incompetent cannot see it.

When wrong, shout louder, get angry, double-down, attack your critics in any way possible. Accuse them of being anti-vaxx, or something of the sort. Dig for the dirt. ‘How to succeed in politics 101, page one, paragraph one.’

However, just have a look, at the figures. Tell me where they are wrong – if you can. The truth is that this particular Emperor has no clothes on and is, currently, standing bollock naked, right in front of you. Hard to believe, but true.

I would like to thank Ronald B Brown for pointing out this catastrophic error, in his article ‘Public health lessons learned from biases in coronavirus mortality overestimation.’ 6

I had not spotted it. He did. All credit is his. I am simply drawing your attention to what has simply been – probably the biggest single mistake that has ever been made in the history of the world.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

2: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(10)70120-1/fulltext#:~:text=Methods%20for%20estimating%20the%20case,a%20novel%2C%20emerging%20infectious%20disease.&text=To%20avoid%20similar%20underestimations%2C%20accounting,be%20about%200%C2%B75%25.

3: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

4: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejme2002387

5: https://reason.com/2020/03/11/covid-19-mortality-rate-ten-times-worse-than-seasonal-flu-says-dr-anthony-fauci/

6: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/public-health-lessons-learned-from-biases-in-coronavirus-mortality-overestimation/7ACD87D8FD2237285EB667BB28DCC6E9

BOTTOM LINE CONCLUSION: THE COVID HYSTERIA REALLY IS BASED ON A HOAX, ONE PERPETRATED BY POWER HUNGRY AND REIMBURSEMENT HUNGRY LEFTISTS AND/OR OPPORTUNISTS BENT ON “RESISTING” THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION NO MATTER THAT THEY DESTROY THE ECONOMY AND THE LIVES AND LIVLYHOODS OF THOUSANDS, PERHAPS EVEN OF HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS, IN THE PROCESS.

Tactics of the Left

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John Hawkins is one of my favorite conservative authors. In an essay penned back in October 2017 he listed, presciently, how the Left was then destroying and would in the future destroy our culture. With full credit and attribution to Hawkins, who’s full essay is available on Town Hall, here’s a summary:

First, to quote his introduction (Note: I’ve replaced the term “Liberalism with “Leftism, “Liberals” with “Leftists”:

“There was a time when we used to be a nation that pushed freedom, responsibility, decency, patriotism and hard work. Some of us still believe in those things, but because of Leftism, much more destructive values have seeped into our culture like toxic waste. There are many ways that Leftists have degraded our culture, but these are the worst of the worst.”

And here’s his list:

1.            The Politicization of Everything.

2.            Political Correctness.

3.            Victimhood.

4.            Leftist Feminism.

5.            Tribalism.

6.            “Non-Judgmentalism”.

Today, one has only to open one’s eyes and ears to see these weapons on display. I would add to his list:

7.            Atheism. While I believe that the only Being in the universe who can prove to you whether He exists or not is God, faith is a very individual thing. By way of contrast, Atheism is a collective imposition of an ideology that doesn’t just eschew faith, but condemns and seeks to eradicate it. It’s obvious that the Left, by seeking to destroy faith, is seeking to replace God with its own brand of religion.

8.            Saturation. The Left seeks to dominate the airwaves in every form and in every medium so as to crowd out, squash, eradicate any dissent.

9.            Falsehood. “Creative Misrepresentation” is the euphemism that Leftist intellectuals use to describe the outright lying and deception used to advance their poisonous ideology. This should be obvious to any paying-attention individual.

10.          Projection. Have you ever noticed that the Left screams at the top of their lungs accusations at the Right that represent precisely what the Left is doing? There is no end to the hypocrisy and deceit they will use to achieve their ends.

11.          Hijacking the Vocabulary. “Choice”, “Social Justice”, “Democratic Socialism”, “Extremism”, “Investment (a.k.a. ‘taxation and spending’), “Science”, “Fair Share”, “The Wealthy”, “Balance”, “Liberal”, “Progressive”, “Racist”, “Undocumented Immigrant”, “Domestic Terrorist”, “Universal Background Checks”, “Assault Rifle”, “Diversity”, “Inclusion”, “Affirmative Action”, “Globalism”, “Climate Change”, “Resistance”, “Human Rights”, “Tolerance”, etc. All of these terms and countless others have been utilized, twisted, turned into Orwell’s Doublespeak, used as euphemisms or been completely destroyed and replaced by the Left.

12.          Revising History. The 1619 Project, the tearing down of historical figure statues, Howard Zinn, the vilification and attempted discrediting of historical leaders like the Founding Fathers…need I say more?

I expect if I thought about it long enough I could expand this list considerably. No matter. My readers know exactly what I’m talking about anyway, and could similarly add to it. The key is to fight, advance and not retreat in the face of these Leftist tactics.

We must pick our battles, yes, but not shun the fight.

Thank You Bari Weiss

America, Headlines, Media, Reason, Values

I’ve been saying for some time now that the Left will eventually implode on itself. Optimist that I am, my view has been that Right (.sic) will prevail over wrong (Left) as Americans eschew the nonsense that fills the airwaves and either: a) by example prove that the virtues of our country embodied in the ideology of the Right are, while of course not perfect, the best way to achieve the most prosperity for all and/or b) vote to support political candidates, imperfect as they too are, who support TRUE American values rather than the necrotizing vacuousness of the Left.

I sincerely believe, and I’m prayerfully hopeful I’m right, that that which fills our television screens, computer monitors and reading material these days represents the death throes of the evil hydra that seeks to gain ultimate power over our people. I used to believe that the Left was comprised of a benign, warm and fuzzyy people who just wished we “could all get along;” who believed that equality of opportunity needed to be preserved (rather than equality of outcomes). What has become obvious is that the Left truly is bent on dominating the minds and will of mankind by marshaling the forces of the Have-Nots against the Haves. In case this struggle sounds familiar, it is the essence of Karl Marx. It is war of Winners against Losers. I don’t mean winners at any cost, or losers who are such because of circumstances truly beyond their control. I refer to those who live by traditional principles like hard work and meritocracy, self-reliance and societal virtue, law and order, etc. fighting against those who don’t have the self-discipline or strength of character to adhere to these winning principles but rather envy these Winners and simply want to suck from them the fruits of their labor, their honor, their prosperity, alleging “unfairness” and all the other arguments advanced by Marx and his Leftist disciples and progeny.

And while I happen to agree with those who condemn crony-capitalism, a “the ends justify the means” approach to policy and a “winner take all” attitude towards the distribution of both resources and opportunities in our country, having lived and traveled extensively around the world I can state with unequivocal certainty that America, democracy and capitalism have done more for the advancement of humankind than any other country, form of government or economic framework in world history.

The amplifying megaphone that the internet has given to the Leftist hydra has all but drowned out voices of reason, honest debate or any view which opposes the hydra orthodoxy. Thinking people know this of course, but Bari Weiss’ scathing confirmation in her July 14, 2020 resignation letter from the New York Times corroborates and vindicates this understanding. It’s a shame. When I used to live in Los Angeles in the 1970’s I couldn’t bear to read the L.A. Times because of its Leftward inbrededness . Rather, I’d obtain copies of and/or read the New York Times because I felt, at the time, it was more balanced and much less biased.

The New York Times, of course, has become what the L.A. Times always was: a completely biased, nay, militant mouthpiece for every Leftist crackpot idea extant. Nowadays, the term is “woke”. To quote Bari, up until yesterday the Opinion Editor of the Times,

“But the truth is that intellectual curiosity—let alone risk-taking—is now a liability at The Times. Why edit something challenging to our readers, or write something bold only to go through the numbing process of making it ideologically kosher, when we can assure ourselves of job security (and clicks) by publishing our 4000th op-ed arguing that Donald Trump is a unique danger to the country and the world? And so self-censorship has become the norm.

What rules that remain at The Times are applied with extreme selectivity. If a person’s ideology is in keeping with the new orthodoxy, they and their work remain unscrutinized. Everyone else lives in fear of the digital thunderdome. Online venom is excused so long as it is directed at the proper targets.”

And there you have it. It’s worth reading the entire letter which can be found here.

It takes courage to so openly and transparently swim against the Tsunami. I commend Ms. Weiss and hope her valiance will serve as an example for others oppressed by the Hydra and yearning to share what they know to be true in their hearts.

On Propaganda

Government, Headlines, Health Care, Media, Reason, Science

The other day an organization I’d never heard of before was brought to my attention. It is a Swiss-based think tank named Swiss Policy Research Institute (SPRI). It describes itself as “an independent, nonpartisan and nonprofit research group investigating geopolitical propaganda in Swiss and international media”. They can be found at https://swprs.org, and I highly recommend a visit to their site and reading some or all of their essays.

Among their recent studies are several dedicated to the COVID pandemic. For several months now I’ve been calming friends and acquaintances with what I’d call common sense analysis of the numbers and proven facts about the disease. The bottom line has been that the Wuhan Virus is no worse than a bad flu. The only difference is that individuals with compromised health and/or immune systems are at greater risk to contracting it and their bodies’ response to COVID when coupled with their existing medical conditions can become overwhelmed and hasten their demise. SPRI has documented precisely the same conclusion. I reproduce here with due acknowledgment and credit, their most recent research. Links are to supporting data and corroboration.

  1. According to the latest immunological and serological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1% and thus in the range of a strong seasonal influenza (flu).
  2. In countries like the US, the UK, and also Sweden (without a lockdown), overall mortality since the beginning of the year is in the range of a strong influenza season; in countries like Germany, Austria and Switzerland, overall mortality is in the range of a mild influenza season.
  3. Even in global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.
  4. Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. Over 95% of all persons develop at most moderate symptoms.
  5. Up to 60% of all persons may already have a certain cellular background immunity to Covid-19 due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. common cold viruses). The initial assumption that there was no immunity against Covid-19 was not correct.
  6. The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years (e.g. 86 years in Sweden) and only about 4% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.
  7. In many countries, up to two thirds of all extra deaths occurred in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid19 or from weeks of extreme stress and isolation.
  8. Up to 30% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.
  9. Even in so-called “Covid19 deaths” it is often not clear whether they died from or with coronavirus (i.e. from underlying diseases) or if they were counted as “presumed cases” and not tested at all. However, official figures usually do not reflect this distinction.
  10. Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 turned out to be false: many of these young people either did not die from Covid19, they had already been seriously ill (e.g. from undiagnosed leukemia), or they were in fact 109 instead of 9 years old. The claimed increase in Kawasaki disease in children also turned out to be false.
  11. Strong increases in regional mortality can occur if there is a collapse in the care of the elderly and sick as a result of infection or panic, or if there are additional risk factors such as severe air pollution. Questionable regulations for dealing with the deceased sometimes led to additional bottlenecks in funeral or cremation services.
  12. In countries such as Italy and Spain, and to some extent the UK and the US, hospital overloads due to strong flu waves are not unusual. Moreover, this year up to 15% of health care workers were put into quarantine, even if they developed no symptoms.
  13. The often shown exponential curves of “corona cases” are misleading, as the number of tests also increased exponentially. In most countries, the ratio of positive tests to tests overall (i.e. the positive rate) remained constant at 5% to 25% or increased only slightly. In many countries, the peak of the spread was already reached well before the lockdown.
  14. Countries without curfews and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea, Belarus or Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. Sweden was even praised by the WHO and now benefits from higher immunity compared to lockdown countries.
  15. The fear of a shortage of ventilators was unjustified. According to lung specialists, the invasive ventilation (intubation) of Covid19 patients, which is partly done out of fear of spreading the virus, is in fact often counterproductive and damaging to the lungs.
  16. Contrary to original assumptions, various studies have shown that there is no evidence of the virus spreading through aerosols (i.e. tiny particles floating in the air) or through smear infections (e.g. on door handles or smartphones). The main modes of transmission are direct contact and droplets produced when coughing or sneezing.
  17. There is also no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of face masks in healthy or asymptomatic individuals. On the contrary, experts warn that such masks interfere with normal breathing and may become “germ carriers”. Leading doctors called them a “media hype” and “ridiculous”.
  18. Many clinics in Europe and the US remained strongly underutilized or almost empty during the Covid19 peak and in some cases had to send staff home. Millions of surgeries and therapies were cancelled, including many cancer screenings and organ transplants.
  19. Several media were caught trying to dramatize the situation in hospitals, sometimes even with manipulative images and videos. In general, the unprofessional reporting of many media maximized fear and panic in the population.
  20. The virus test kits used internationally are prone to errors and can produce false positive and false negative results. Moreover, the official virus test was not clinically validated due to time pressure and may sometimes react positive to other coronaviruses.
  21. Numerous internationally renowned experts in the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology consider the measures taken to be counterproductive and recommend rapid natural immunization of the general population and protection of risk groups.
  22. At no time was there a medical reason for the closure of schools, as the risk of disease and transmission in children is extremely low. There is also no medical reason for small classes, masks or ‘social distancing’ rules in schools.
  23. The claim that only (severe) Covid-19 but not influenza may cause venous thrombosis and pulmonary (lung) embolism is not true, as it has been known for 50 years that severe influenza greatly increases the risk of thrombosis and embolism, too.
  24. Several medical experts described express coronavirus vaccines as unnecessary or even dangerous. Indeed, the vaccine against the so-called swine flu of 2009, for example, led to sometimes severe neurological damage and lawsuits in the millions. In the testing of new coronavirus vaccines, too, serious complications and failures have already occurred.
  25. A global influenza or corona pandemic can indeed extend over several seasons, but many studies of a “second wave” are based on very unrealistic assumptions, such as a constant risk of illness and death across all age groups.
  26. Several nurses, e.g. in New York City, described an oftentimes fatal medical mis­manage­ment of Covid patients due to questionable financial incentives or inappropriate medical protocols.
  27. The number of people suffering from unemployment, depressions and domestic violence as a result of the measures has reached historic record values. Several experts predict that the measures will claim far more lives than the virus itself. According to the UN 1.6 billion people around the world are at immediate risk of losing their livelihood.
  28. NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the “corona crisis” will be used for the permanent expansion of global surveillance. Renowned virologist Pablo Goldschmidt spoke of a “global media terror” and “totalitarian measures”. Leading British virologist Professor John Oxford spoke of a “media epidemic”.
  29. More than 600 scientists have warned of an “unprecedented surveillance of society” through problematic apps for “contact tracing”. In some countries, such “contact tracing” is carried out directly by the secret service. In several parts of the world, the population is being monitored by drones and facing serious police overreach during lockdowns.
  30. A 2019 WHO study on public health measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”. Nevertheless, contact tracing apps have already become partially mandatory in several countries.

I don’t agree with all of their conclusions, but I urge readers to read their work and judge for themselves whether the pandemic is evidence of an apocalypse as much of the media would have you believe (remember, “if it bleeds it leads”) or evidence of propaganda and mass delusion.

Stay well.

Tiggers

America, Economy, Education, Entertainment, Family, Finance and Investments, Government, Headlines, Health Care, Morality, Politics, Reason, Religion, Science, Society & Culture, Technology, Uncategorized, Values

The stock market has crashed. Unemployment is skyrocketing. The number of confirmed Wuhan Virus (that’s what I call it) cases is growing exponentially. Grocery store shelves are bare. Gun sales are going through the roof. Office buildings in Manhattan are empty. People are walking around with masks. Schools are cancelled. The internet is bogging down because so many people are home its vaunted capacity (bandwidth) is proving to be inadequate for the demand. California is “locked down”. Hell has broken loose.

However… “The wonderful thing about Tiggers is, tiggers is wonderful things. Their tops are made of rubber, and their tails are made of springs. They’re bouncy, flouncy, trouncy, pouncy, full of fun, fun fun. The wonderful thing about Tiggers is, I’m the only one.” Substitute Americans for tiggers and you’ll have a hint as to why despite the misery and impending doom I’m optimistic for the future.  

My thoughts…

1.            As bad as the pandemic is, it’s not as bad as you think. Simple arithmetic coupled with basic critical thinking points to the conclusion that greater than 99% of everyone who contracts the disease will recover, and we don’t know of course how many people WILL or WILL NOT contract it. Thousands get sick and many die each day from heart disease, cancer, jaywalking, ‘regular’ flu and chronic lung disease from smoking, etc. As of this morning, ~a quarter of a million people WORLDWIDE have been confirmed to have the virus, ~10,000 people WORLDWIDE have died from the virus, and ~86,000 have recovered. These numbers are DWARFED by regular flu.  In the U.S., ~15,000 people have confirmed cases and ~100 people have died. This flu season alone (roughly from October 2019 to the present) 31MM people IN THE UNITED STATES (!) have had the flu. Somewhere around 275,000 give or take have had to be hospitalized, and as many as 30,000 (vs. 100) have died from run-of-the-mill flu! (See  https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year for a plain language discussion.) Translation – this isn’t anywhere near as bad as the media and politicians would have you believe.

2.            Despite what you hear or see, the government is doing the right things. They may not in all cases being doing things right, but the medical, logistical, economic and societal response is “gettin’ ‘er done”. I expect the response is even overdone if you look at the statistics in the previous paragraph. So, for example, NOT EVERYONE NEEDS A TEST! If you get sick, sure, go get a test. But it’s self-centered, selfish and “looking out for number one” just to confirm you’re NOT sick, and may deprive someone who really needs to be tested from getting the help they need. Testing is NOT a cure, and satisfying statistical number crunching is nowhere near as important as preventing and treating the actual disease. Mobilization and coordination among all the health care agencies, departments and the private sector is exactly what is needed, and again, no matter what you hear, there are very competent people who care about others and this country hard at work on the problems. Have some faith in them!

The backstopping of employers in various ways and the anticipated support given to individuals and families is being matched by lenders, landlords, tax collectors… you name it. Everyone’s in this and making accommodations following the lead of the federal, state and local governments.

Just remember that “the government” is made up of people who have the same hopes, dreams, fears, constraints, problems as everyone else in the country. The vast majority are working their asses off to help and do what’s right within their on organizations and spheres of influence. I had to go to the department of motor vehicles the other day. Everyone there had taken a large dose of patience pills and I was both shocked and thrilled to see how both the people behind the counter and in front of it were behaving.

The government, of course, is damned if they do and damned if they don’t, but on balance, its response to this crisis has been overwhelmingly appropriate and helpful. Its communications, despite the handwringing and teeth-gnashing of a “if it bleeds it leads” media has been solid, optimistic, informative and suitably cautionary as to get virtually the whole nation (except the Florida beach Spring Break party animals) to respond as it should. This all happened in a matter of days, unlike the responses during the H1N1, SARS, MERS and other pandemics.

3.            Gas prices and interest rates are falling. The one commodity everyone needs is fuel, and the stimulating effect of a drop in gas prices to the ~$2.00 – ~$2.50 level is incredibly impactful on regular budgets. This will benefit us all, except of course for oil producers. But Washington is on to the Russian and Saudi’s game to try to destroy our energy-independent status and crush our shale industry, and are NOT going to let them get away with it. Similarly, we’re not standing idly by while China spews its propaganda and stomps its feet and blames our military for what they caused or worse, threatens us with withholding drugs such that we become “awash in a sea of Coronavirus”. We’ve thrown the bull#%*& flag on that already and will continue to rub China’s nose in the mess they’ve created and left on the world’s floor. Xenophobic? No, just highlighting the truth in the face false accusations.

4.            One of the silver linings in this mess is the awakening that has occurred among government, industry and the American people that we must no longer be held hostage by foreign manufacturers and suppliers. The Globalist agenda has been thoroughly trounced by this exposure of its flaws, and bringing our manufacturing and supply chains home may result in higher priced goods, but we’ll all benefit in the long run.

5.            Kids are getting educated again. Home schooling is exposing the inadequacies, biases and absurdities of the current state of our education system. Parents are waking up to what is being taught, and what is NOT being taught to our children. I predict that for whatever time period home-schooling prevails, our kids will get a BETTER education than what they’re getting at school, and teachers will be astonished when students return at how far they’ve advanced. You heard it from me first.

6.            Neighbors are helping neighbors. Our little local email chain is lit up with offers of help and assistance. People are getting outside and checking on each other from afar (i.e. more than six feet). Kids are teaching parents and grandparents about Facetime, Skype and Zoom. And Animal Planet is running shows about carefree kittens and puppies. Come on…how much better is it to watch than the gloom and doom on broadcast tv?

7.            People are learning who their leaders are. Not the ones with the titles, but the ones who are true leaders as opposed to managers and demagogues. True leaders step up in times of crisis and go to the front of the crowd, carry a light and turn back to shout encouragement and instill confidence in others. People who may have labored in the shadows or punched well below their weight are now emerging as the shepherds of our society. This separating of the leaders from the followers can only be a positive development.

8.            The Silent Majority is silent no more. Having to adapt to the situation, conservatives and the Right who normally are head down working and caring for themselves and their families are speaking up and speaking out. They are not just throwing the BS flag on politically correct nonsense, they are ignoring social engineering and all its related evils and practicing true philanthropy and real, beneficial community activism.

9.            Complacency is evaporating. It’s amazing what being forced to rely on fundamentals and things that matter will do to a spoiled and coddled population. In the face of what’s going on, do people really care what the Kardashians think?

10.          Faith is making a comeback. It’s sad but true that there are no atheists in foxholes. We’re rediscovering our faith despite not being able to attend Church. And whether it’s one religion or another, it’s the common principles of right and wrong, goodness versus evil and a belief in a set of universal truths that are moving back into the public consciousness. This is a good thing.

11.          Families are getting to know one another again. Yes, we’re cooped up and hunkered down. And things get testy at times as we bumble around in each other’s way. But for many of us, we’re forced to seek virtue: patience, understanding, caring for one another, and learning anew about each other. It doesn’t take a village, it takes a family, and families are binding together out of necessity and love.

And finally, THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON I’M OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE is that America has the most natural and other resources of any nation on earth. We can produce enough of EVERYTHING to take care of ourselves and help the rest of the world to boot. We have the smartest people. We have a spirit of “can do” that is unparalleled on the planet. Many nations think we’re brash, loud, obnoxious, overly proud and nationalistic and hate us for our bad manners and profligacy. So be it. I’d rather live in the United States than in any other country. We will not only get through this, but emerge stronger than ever and once again, we’ll be the city set on a hill letting our light so shine as to be a beacon of freedom and prosperity to the entire world.

I’m a pragmatist, and I recognize the challenges that lie ahead to recover from this mess. But I believe with every fiber of my being that things are going to be better than ok, and sooner than the so-called experts predict. I’m not suggesting we all go Hakuna Matata on this, but let’s put things in perspective shall we?

May God continue to bless us. And may God continue to bless America.

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